Thursday, July 30, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 7-31-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Mildly Higher after Batch of Weak Data

Asian markets are stuck in tight range after US stocks closed nearly flat overnight. Yen is mildly higher after a batch of weak data from Japan. National CPI rose slightly by 0.1% yoy in June versus expectation of 0.0%. But Tokyo CPI dropped -0.1% yoy in July versus expectation of 0.0% yoy. Recently, BoJ stayed optimistic that inflation will pick up again towards its 2% target later. But currently, the data showed little progress in achieving this. Doubts remained among economists on whether BoJ could achieve the target at all without additional monetary stimulus. Also from Japan, unemployment rate rose to 3.4% in June versus expectation of 3.3%. Household spending dropped -2.0% yoy in June versus expectation of 1.9% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.81; (P) 124.19; (R1) 124.51; More...

At this point, there is no follow through buying for USD/JPY to stay above 124.43 resistance yet. But with 123.00 support intact, further rise is still in favor. Sustained trading above 124.43/47 resistance zone will pave the way for a test on 125.58 high. Break will resume the larger up trend. Nonetheless, break of 123.00 will indicate the rebound from 120.40 has completed at 124.47. Also, that will suggest that the consolidation pattern from 125.85 is starting another falling leg. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 120.40 and below.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul 4 5 7
23:30 JPY Jobless Rate Jun 3.40% 3.30% 3.30%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jun -2.00% 1.90% 4.80%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Jun 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jul -0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
1:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Jul -15.3 -2.3
1:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q2 0.30% 0.50%
1:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q2 1.10% 0.70%
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jun 3.00% 5.80%
6:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.30% 0.50%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jun 11.00% 11.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jul 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jul A 0.80% 0.80%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q2 0.60% 0.70%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M May 0.00% -0.10%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jul 50.5 49.4
14:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jul F 94 93.3
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has fallen again after brief recovery, bids at 1.0940 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.0900 and 1.0880, buying interest is reported at 1.0860, 1.0820-25 and 1.0800, fresh demand is tipped at 1.0780, 1.0750 barrier (stops below) and 1.0720. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.0980-85, 1.1000 and 1.1020, sell orders are expected at 1.1050, 1.1065 and 1.1080-85, selling interest should emerge around 1.1100, 1.1120 and 1.1160, sellers are awaiting at 1.1185 and 1.1200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.2900

The greenback found renewed buying interest at 1.2862 yesterday and has staged a rebound, retaining our bullishness and above 1.3050-60 would signal the retreat from 1.3103 has ended, bring retest of this level, once this resistance is penetrated, this would extend recent wave iii to 1.3150-60, then 1.3200, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3250-60 and price should falter below 1.3300-10, bring correction later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold long entered at 0.7285

Although aussie has retreated again after faltering below resistance at 0.7351, as long as this week's low at 0.7257 holds, consolidation with mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above said resistance at 0.7351 would bring recovery to 0.7390-00, however, reckon resistance at 0.7449 (last week's high) would limit upside and resistance at 0.7489 should hold from here, bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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