Thursday, July 30, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-30-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Lacks Follow Through Buying after GDP

Dollar initially strengthens in early US session after release of a batch of economic data but it lacks follow through buying so far. US GDP grew 2.3% annualized in Q2, lower than expectation of 2.6%. Nonetheless, that's seen as a notable improvement over a sluggish Q1. Also Q1's figure was revised up to 0.6% gain, instead of -0.2% contraction based on a new methodology. GDP price index accelerated to 2.0%, higher than expectation of 1.5%. Initial jobless claims rose 12k to 267k in the week ended July 25, better than expectation of 271k. Continuing claims rose 46k to 2.26m in the week ended July 18. The greenback extended recent rise against Swiss Franc today, mainly due to the weakness of the latter. EUR/USD recovered by stays above 1.0807 support. USD/JPY breached 124.47 but struggles to sustain above.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.50; (P) 123.75; (R1) 124.19; More...

The breach of 124.47 suggests that rebound from 120.40 is resuming. Intraday bias is mildly back on the upside. Sustained trading above 124.43/47 resistance zone will pave the way for a test on 125.58 high. Break will resume the larger up trend. Nonetheless, break of 123.00 will indicate the rebound from 120.40 has completed at 124.47. Also, that will suggest that the consolidation pattern from 125.85 is starting another falling leg. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 120.40 and below.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Jun -4.10% 0.00%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun P 0.80% 0.30% -2.10%
01:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q2 1.40% 1.50% -0.20%
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jun -8.20% -1.00% 2.40% 2.30%
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jul 99.8 90.3 89.7 89.8
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jul 9K -5K -1K 1K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jul 6.40% 6.40%
08:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Jul 104 103.2 103.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jul 0.39 0.19 0.14
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jul -2.9 -3.4 -3.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Jul 8.9 8 7.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jul F -7.1 -7.1 -7.1
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jul P 0.20% 0.20% -0.10%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul P 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 A 2.30% 2.60% -0.20% 0.60%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 A 2.00% 1.50% 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 25) 267k 271K 255K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 61B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has fallen again after brief recovery, bids at 1.0940 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.0900 and 1.0880, buying interest is reported at 1.0860, 1.0820-25 and 1.0800, fresh demand is tipped at 1.0780, 1.0750 barrier (stops below) and 1.0720. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.0980-85, 1.1000 and 1.1020, sell orders are expected at 1.1050, 1.1065 and 1.1080-85, selling interest should emerge around 1.1100, 1.1120 and 1.1160, sellers are awaiting at 1.1185 and 1.1200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.0985

Euro's intra-day breach of previous support at  1.0925 signals rebound from 1.0809 has ended at 1.1130 and mild downside bias remains for weakness to 1.0900, then towards support at 1.0869 but break of latter level is needed to retain bearishness and extend further decline to 1.0830-35, then towards said support at 1.0809.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9675

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after breaking above previous resistance at 0.9674, adding credence to our view that recent erratic rise from 0.9072 low is still in progress and may extend gain to 0.9720-25 (61.8% projection of 0.9330-0.9649 measuring from 0.9526), then 0.9750, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9780-85 (1.236 times projection of 0.9151-0.9516 measuring from 0.9330) and reckon 0.9800 would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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