Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-14-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Lower after Retail Sales, Sterling Lifted by BoE Carney

Dollar pares back some gains in early US session on weaker than expected economic data. Headline retail sales dropped -0.3% in June versus consensus of 0.3% growth. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.1% versus expectation of 0.6% growth. Import price index dropped -0.1% mom in June versus consensus of 0.3% mom. The greenback is seen lower against most major currencies. In particular, Sterling was lifted by BoE governor Mark Carney's comment in spite of weak inflation data.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5448; (P) 1.5518; (R1) 1.5556; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.5329 resumes after brief retreat and reaches as high as 1.5628 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for a test on 1.5929 resistance. As noted before, current development argues that rebound from 1.4565 might still be in progress. Break of 1.5929 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4565 at 1.6187. On the downside, below 1.5450 minor support will turn focus back to 1.5169 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Jun 1.80% 0.00%
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jun 10 7 8
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jun F -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jun F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Jun -0.10% 0.20% -0.80%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jun -6.10% -6.00%
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jun 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jun 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Jun 0.80% 0.90% 0.90%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jun 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jun 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jun -1.30% -0.80% -0.90% -1.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jun -12.60% -11.80% -12.00% -12.30%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jun 0.00% 0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jun -1.50% -1.50% -1.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Jun 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y May 5.70% 5.90% 5.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M May -0.40% 0.20% 0.10%
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul 29.7 30 31.5
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Jul 63.9 60 62.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul 42.7 51.1 53.7
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jun -0.30% 0.30% 1.20% 1.00%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jun -0.10% 0.60% 1.00% 0.80%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jun -0.10% 0.30% 1.30%
14:00 USD Business Inventories May 0.20% 0.40%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found support at 1.0966 and rebounded in European session, however, euro ran into resistance at 1.1084 and has retreated in NY morning. At the moment, bids are noted at 1.1000, 1.0960-70 (stops below) and 1.0940, buy orders are expected at 1.0925, 1.0900 and 1.0880, buying interest is likely to emerge around 1.0850 barrier, 1.0825 and 1.0800 (stops below). On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.1085 and 1.1100, selling interest is tipped at 1.1125, 1.1140 and 1.1165, sellers are awaiting further out at 1.1180, 1.1200 and 1.1220-25, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1245-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.1000

As the single currency found good support at 1.0966 and has staged a strong rebound, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for gain to previous support at 1.1092, break there would signal the fall from 1.1216 has ended and bring test of the lower Kumo (now at 1.1104), however, price should falter well below the upper Kumo (now at 1.1122), bring further choppy trading.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 122.50

As the greenback has eased after rising to 123.73 earlier today (just faltered below indicated resistance at 123.74), suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 123.00 and possibly previous resistance at 122.88 is likely, however, reckon 122.50-55 would limit downside and bring another upmove later, break of said resistance at 123.73-74 would extend the rally from 120.41 low to 123.99, break there would signal recent entire fall from 125.86 top has ended at 120.41

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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