Monday, July 27, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-27-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Markets Back in Risk Aversion as China Selloff Resumed

Global markets tumble sharply today as the selloff in China's stock market resumed. The Shanghai composite index dropped -345 pts, or -8.48% and led Asian equities lower. Major European indices followed with DAX down -220 pts, or -1.95% at the time of writing. CAC is down -96 pts, or -1.9% while FTSE is down -47 pts, or -0.7%. Commodities also extended recent downward spiral with the Thomson Reuters CRB commodities index hitting a six-year low. Gold is supported by risk aversion and is trading steady around 1100 for the moment. But crude oil is trading down and is reaching as low as 47.20 so far. US futures also point to a sharply lower open. In the currency markets, Euro is helped by stronger than expected Ifo readings and is broadly higher while dollar is generally pressured.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.57; (P) 123.83; (R1) 124.07; More...

At this point, USD/JPY is still holding above 122.91 minor support and intraday bias stays neutral first. Break of 122.91 will indicate the rebound from 120.40 has completed at 124.47. Also, that will suggest that the consolidation pattern from 125.85 is starting another falling leg. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 120.40. For the moment, we'd expect strong support above 118.88 to contain downside. Meanwhile,, sustained break of 124.43/47 resistance zone will bring retest of 125.85 high.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jun 0.40% 0.60% 0.60%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Jun -0.50% -0.30% -0.20%
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Jul 108 107.2 107.4 107.5
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Jul 113.9 112.9 113.1
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Jul 102.4 101.8 102 102.1
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jun 5.00% 5.10% 5.00%
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Jul -10 -6 -7
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jun 3.40% 3.50% -1.80% -2.10%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Jun 0.80% 0.50% 0.50% -0.10%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone after intra-day rally to 1.1114, however, offers are still noted at 1.1120 and 1.1160, more selling interest is tipped at 1.1185 and 1.1200. On the downside bids are seen at 1.1040-50, 1.1020 and 1.1000, more buy orders are expected at 1.0980, 1.0965 and 1.0940, buying interest is located at 1.0900, 1.0880 and 1.0860, fresh demand should emerge around 1.0820-25, 1.0800 and 1.0785, mixture of bids and stops is seen at 1.0750 barrier.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1000

As the single currency has surged again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.0925, suggesting the rise from last week's low of 1.0809 low is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.1125-30 (1.618 times projection of 1.0809-1.0969 measuring from 1.0869), however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1150-60 and resistance at 1.1197 should hold, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell at 123.55

The greenback met renewed selling interest at 123.84 earlier today and has fallen again below previous support at 123.57, signaling the decline from 124/49 top is still in progress for at least a correction of recent rise to 122.92-93 (previous support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 120.41-124.48), break there would extend weakness to 122.70 but reckon 122.40-45 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would limit downside, price should stay well above support at 122.18

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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