Thursday, July 2, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 7-3-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Post NFP Volatility Limited, Markets Await Greece Referendum

Dollar weakened mildly after yesterday's job report but loss is limited. The set of Non-farm payroll data was seen as mildly disappointing to economists. The expectations for two rate hike before the end of the year was cut down a lot. In particular, the lack of wage growth would give the Fed a lot more room to wage and see. Nonetheless, the expectations of a September hike maintained. Reactions in the financial markets were pretty mild too as traders await the result of referendum in Greece on Sunday. DJIA closed mildly lower by -27.8 pts, or -0.16% at 17730.11 while S&P 500 closed -0.64 pts, or -0.03% lower at 2076.78. Dollar index is staying near to the mid-point of recent range around 96. As US markets are on holiday today, the markets would stay cautious before the weekly close.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7595; (P) 0.7625; (R1) 0.7662; More...

AUD/USD's fall continues today and reaches as low as 0.7577. Intraday bias remain son the downside for 0.7532 support. Break there will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.8910 to 0.7625 from 0.8161 at 0.7367 next. On the upside, break of 0.7848 resistance is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M May 0.30% 0.40% 0.00% -0.10%
1:45 CNY HSBC China Services PMI Jun 51.8 53.8 53.5
7:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Jun 52.9 52.5
7:50 EUR France Services PMI Jun F 54.1 54.1
7:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Jun F 54.2 54.2
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Jun F 54.4 54.4
8:30 GBP Services PMI Jun 57.5 56.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M May 0.10% 0.70%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found support around 1.1050 and has recovered again, offers at 1.1120 were filled but sell orders are expected at 1.1145-50 and 1.1170 (stops above 1.1175-80), sellers are tipped at 1.1200, 1.1220-25 and 1.1245, selling interest should emerge around 1.1280 and 1.1300. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1075-80, 1.1050 and 1.1030 (stops below), more buy orders are reported at 1.1000, 1.0980 and 1.0960, fresh demand should emerge at 1.0930 and 1.0900.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.2470

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 1.2633, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.2500 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.2460-70 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend recent upmove from 1.1920 (wave c and probably entire wave iv) in wave iii to 1.2665-70, then 1.2700.

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7210

The single currency has remained confined in narrow range after meeting resistance at 0.7168 and although near term downside risk is for weakness to 0.7045-50, if our view that low has possibly been formed at 0.6988 earlier this week is correct, downside would be limited and euro may stage another rebound, above 0.7130 would bring test of said resistance at 0.7168, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around resistance at 0.7211, bring another decline

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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