Wednesday, July 1, 2015

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Firm as Focus Turns from Greece to NFP

Dollar is firm in Asian session as markets' focus turns temporarily away from Greece to job data from US. Non-farm payroll is expected to show 225k growth in June while unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.4%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% mom. Leading data for NFP were generally positive. The ADP report showed 237k growth in private sector jobs in the same month, up from prior 203k and beat expectation 211k. The four week moving average of initial claims dropped slightly 1k to 274k on June 20 versus May 30's 275k. The employment component of ISM manufacturing showed impressive improvement to 55.5, up from 51.7. That's also the highest reading this year. Conference Board consumer confidence rose to 101.4, matching the second highest reading this year in March. So overall, the data suggests that we'd likely have a positive NFP reading today which would be dollar supportive. The wild card is in the wage growth figure which might propel the greenback higher in case of up side surprise.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2509; (P) 1.2553; (R1) 1.2632; More...

The break of 1.2562 resistance confirmed resumption of rebound from 1.1919. Intraday remains on the upside for a test on 1.2834 key resistance next. The larger up trend could be resuming and break of 1.2834 will confirm this bullish case. On the downside, below 1.2474 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rally.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jun 34.20% 36.20% 35.60%
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) May -2.75B -2.21B -3.89B -4.14B
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices M/M Jun 0.60% 0.30%
8:30 GBP Construction PMI Jun 56.6 55.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M May 0.10% -0.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y May -2.10% -2.20%
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jun 225K 280K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jun 5.40% 5.50%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jun 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 27) 270K 271K
14:00 USD Factory Orders May -0.30% -0.40%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 75B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency ran into renewed selling interest at 1.1171 and has fallen again, bids at 1.1100 and 1.1080 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.1050 and 1.1030, buying interest is tipped at 1.1000 and 1.0980, fresh demand should emerge around 1.0960, 1.0930 and 1.0900. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.1120-30, 1.1150 and 1.1170 (stops above 1.1175-80), sell orders are reported at 1.1200 and 1.1220-25, sellers are located at 1.1245 and 1.1280, selling interest is expected 1.1300, 1.1330 and 1.1350.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7210

Although the single currency has retreated after meeting resistance at 0.7168 yesterday and near term downside risk is for weakness to 0.7045-50, if our view that low has possibly been formed at 0.6988 earlier this week is correct, downside would be limited and euro may stage another rebound, above 0.7125-30 would bring test of said resistance at 0.7168, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around resistance at 0.7211, bring another decline later. Below 0.7045-50 would bring retest of said support at 0.6988

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.2470

The greenback has rallied after finding renewed buying interest at 1.2304 earlier this week and current break of previous resistance at 1.2563 adds credence to our view that wave ii correction has ended at 1.2128 and bullishness remains for the rise from 1.1920 (wave c and probably entire wave iv) to extend further gain to 1.2600 and later towards 1.2665-70.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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