Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 8-18-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Broadly Higher on Inflation Readings

Sterling rises broadly today on higher than expected inflation reading. Headline CPI rose to 0.1% yoy in July versus expectation of being unchanged at 0.0% yoy. Core CPI even jumped higher to 1.2% yoy, versus expectation of 0.8% yoy. RPI was unchanged at 1.0% yoy as expected. PPI input rose to -12.4% yoy, PPI output was unchanged at -1.6% yoy, PPI output core rose to 0.3% yoy. There were various opinion on whether BOE should raise interest rate. The Institute of Directors said that it saw "no sense for interest rates to be at a historic low". It also emphasized that "it is important that a low headline rate of inflation does not stand in the way of normalizing interest rates. Core inflation has hit a five-month high and the Bank of England expects inflation to return to two per cent over the next few years." On the other hand, the British Chamber of Commerce said that "with low inflation expected to be around for some time and the world economy remaining uncertain, there is no need for the MPC to make a premature move to raise interest rates. We urge the MPC to keep rates at the current level until well into 2016."

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5546; (P) 1.5617; (R1) 1.5655; More... .

The break of 1.5689 resistance suggests that rebound from 1.5329 is resuming. Intraday bias in GBP/USD is changed to the upside. Further rise would be seen to 1.5929 resistance and possibly above. But we'd continue to be cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4565 at 1.6187 to limit upside to complete whole rise from 1.4565. On the downside, below 1.5561 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5329/5423 support zone instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jul -0.20% -0.30% 0.00%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jul 0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Jul 1.20% 0.80% 0.80%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jul -0.10% -0.10% 0.20%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jul 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jul -0.90% -2.00% -1.30% -1.80%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jul -12.40% -12.80% -12.60% -13.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jul -0.10% -0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jul -1.60% -1.50% -1.50% -1.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
08:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Jun 5.70% 5.90% 5.70%
12:30 USD Building Permits M/M Jul -16.30% -10.30% 7.40% 7.00%
12:30 USD Housing Starts M/M Jul 0.20% 0.50% 9.80% 12.30%
12:30 USD Building Permits Jul 1.12M 1.21M 1.34M
12:30 USD Housing Starts Jul 1.21M 1.20M 1.17M 1.20M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has slipped again and bids at 1.1050 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.1020 and 1.1000, buyers are expected at 1.0985, 1.0965 and 1.0950, buying interest should emerge around 1.0930, 1.0900 and 1.0885. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.1070-80, 1.1100 and 1.1120-25, sell orders are reported at 1.1150, 1.1180 and 1.1200, selling interest is tipped at 1.1220, 1.1245, 1.1265 and 1.1285, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5640

The British pound found decent demand at 1.5563 and has rallied in line with our expectation on UK CPI data, intra-day break of previous resistance at 1.5690 signals early erratic rise from 1.5330 low has resumed and bullishness remains for further gain to 1.5750, then test of resistance at 1.5789, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5820-30 and reckon 1.5850 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9780

Although the greenback has rebounded again after holding above support at 0.9742 (yesterday's low) and further consolidation would be seen, as long as resistance at 0.9799-02 holds, mild downside bias remains for another fall to said support, then test of 0.9728 support (Friday's low) but break there is needed to retain bearishness and signal the rebound from 0.9678 has ended, bring another test of this support

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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