Friday, August 28, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-28-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Firm Despite Mixed Fed Comments

Dollar stays firm today as markets is heading for the weekly closes. There are some mixed comments from Fed officials regarding rate hike. St Louis Fed president James Bullard said that recent market volatility over the past 10 days would "not very much" change the economic outlook as seen by Fed. He noted that if the FOMC meeting happens this week "people would probably say let's wait". However, the meeting is on September 16 and 17. Meanwhile, he also support a non-regular post FOMC press conference for October if interest rate isn't raised in September. And he noted that would make it easier for Fed to explain the liftoff in October. Overall, Bullard is support for a rate hike in near term.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1216; (P) 1.1388 (R1) 1.1486; More....

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1713 extends lower today and the deeper than expected fall is starting to argue for a case of reversal. Focus is back on 1.1016 support decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.0461 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for this low. Meanwhile, above 1.1363 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1713 and possibly above.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Aug 7 4 4
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jul 3.30% 3.40% 3.40%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jul -0.20% 0.50% -2.00%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Jul 0.00% -0.20% 0.10%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Aug -0.10% -0.20% -0.10%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Jul 1.60% 1.10% 0.90% 1.00%
5:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q2 0.20% -0.10% -0.20%
8:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug 104.2 103.8 104
9:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Aug 0.21 0.34 0.39 0.41
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug -3.7 -3.2 -2.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Aug 10.2 8.8 8.9
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Aug P 0.00% -0.10% 0.20%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Aug P 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jul 0.70% 0.10% 0.50%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jul -5.90% -4.00% 0.00%
12:30 USD Personal Income Jul 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Jul 0.30% 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jul 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jul 1.20% 1.30% 1.30%
14:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Aug F 91.9 93.2 92.9
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated after meeting resistance at 1.1310 and bids at 1.1265-70 and 1.1250 were filled but buy orders are reported at 1.1225-30 and 1.1200, buying interest should emerge around 1.1185 and 1.1150. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.1275-80, 1.1300-10 and 1.1325, sell orders are expected at 1.1340 and 1.1355-60, more selling interest is tipped at 1.1380, 1.1400 and 1.1425, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9515

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 0.9673 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to previous resistance at 0.9553 (now support) cannot bee ruled out, however, reckon support at 0.9514 would contain downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 0.9673 would extend the upmove from 0.9259 low to 0.9690

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1370

As the single currency has recovered after falling to 1.1203 yesterday, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to resistance at 1.1364 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the lower Kumo (now at 1.1372) would limit upside and bring another decline later, below 1.1230-35 would bring retest of said yesterday's low, break there would extend the fall from 1.1714 top towards 1.1169-79

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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