Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-18-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Steady after CPI as Focus Turn to FOMC Minutes

Dollar stays in familiar range against other major currencies in early US session after consumer inflation data were released. Headline CPI rose 0.1% mom, 0.2% yoy in July, inline with expectation. That compared to prior month's 0.3% mom, 0.1% yoy. Core CPI rose 0.1% mom, 1.8% yoy versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.9% yoy. That compared to prior month's 0.2% mom, 1.8% yoy. The minutes of July 28-29 FOMC meeting are the next focus. Main attention is on whether there is hint of the chance of September rate hike. But Fed might yet disappoint the markets again by sounding non-committal and keep the options open. Nonetheless, some volatility is likely if Fed does sound clearer regarding the issue.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.21; (P) 124.36; (R1) 124.55; More...

USD/JPY's consolidative trading from 125.27 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, firm break of 123.00 will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another falling leg towards 120.40 support. Nonetheless, decisive break of 125.85 will confirm larger up trend resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q2 -0.30% -0.50% -1.10%
22:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q2 -0.20% -0.20% -0.90%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Jul -0.37T -0.16T -0.25T -0.28T
00:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Jul 0.00% 0.00%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Jun 0.30% 0.40% -0.50%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jun 25.4B 19.2B 18.0B 19.1B
12:30 USD CPI M/M Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jul 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jul 1.80% 1.90% 1.80%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.7M
18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has retreated after intra-day brief bounce to 1.1076, offers are still noted at 1.1075-85, 1.1100 and 1.1120-25, sell orders are reported at 1.1150, 1.1180 and 1.1200, selling interest is tipped at 1.1220, 1.1245 and 1.1265, sellers are awaiting at 1.1285 and 1.1300. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1020, 1.1000 and 1.0985, buy orders are expected at 1.0965 and 1.0950, buying interest should emerge around 1.0930, 1.0900 and 1.0885.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5620

Although the British pound has retreated after faltering below 1.5700, retaining our view that further consolidation below yesterday's high of 1.5717 would be seen and another corrective fall to 1.5640-50 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.5620 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above resistance at 1.5717 is needed to signal recent early erratic rise from 1.5330 low has resumed

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold short entered at 124.50

The greenback has remained confined in narrow range in line with our expectation and further sideways trading would be seen, however, as long as indicated resistance at 124.63 holds, mild downside bias remains for another fall to support at 124.05, break there would bring test of support at 123.79 but below there is needed to add credence to our view that top has been formed at 125.28 last week, bring subsequent fall towards previous support at 123.52.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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