Thursday, August 20, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 8-20-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Pressured on Dovish FOMC Minutes

Dollar was under much selling pressure after released of the dovish and non-committal FOMC minutes overnight but stabilized a bit today. Despite improvement in various macroeconomic indicators, policymakers believed that more evidence is needed to show that inflation is moving toward goal and the job market improvement is sufficient and sustainable, before they would adopt a rate hike. Although one member preferred to hike interest rates in the July meeting, 'most judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point'. The member opting for tightening was also willing to wait for additional data to confirm a judgment to raise the target range. US dollar dropped but bonds strengthened after the minutes on diminished expectations of a rate hike in September. Futures showed that the market is priced in a 36% probability of a rate hike next month, down from about 50% before the minutes were released.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.76; (P) 194.39; (R1) 194.77; More.....

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral first. Rebound from 184.95 is viewed as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 195.86. Hence, in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance from 195.86 to limit upside and bring reversal. Break of 191.96 support will start the third leg of the consolidation and will target 184.95 support.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
6:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Jul 3.74B 2.59B 3.58B 3.51B
6:00 EUR German PPI M/M Jul 0.00% -0.10% -0.10%
6:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Jul -1.30% -1.40% -1.40%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20% -0.20% -0.10%
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Aug -5 -10
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jun -1.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 15) 272K 274K
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales M/M Jul -1.50% 3.20%
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Jul 0.20% 0.60%
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Aug 6.2 5.7
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jul 5.41M 5.49M
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 65B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has retreated after intra-day brief bounce to 1.1076, offers are still noted at 1.1075-85, 1.1100 and 1.1120-25, sell orders are reported at 1.1150, 1.1180 and 1.1200, selling interest is tipped at 1.1220, 1.1245 and 1.1265, sellers are awaiting at 1.1285 and 1.1300. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1020, 1.1000 and 1.0985, buy orders are expected at 1.0965 and 1.0950, buying interest should emerge around 1.0930, 1.0900 and 1.0885.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea : USD/CHF - Target met and sell at 0.9705

The greenback fell quite sharply yesterday in line with our bearish expectation, our short position entered at 0.9780 met target at 0.9680, this breach of previous support at 0.9678 adds credence to our view that the fall from 0.9903 top is still in progress and may extend weakness towards 0.9615-20 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9330-0.9903), however, oversold condition should limit downside to 0.9600

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1085

As the single currency has continued to find good support at 1.1018 yesterday and has rebounded, suggesting pullback from 1.1214 (last week's high) has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 1.1150 but break of resistance at 1.1189 is needed to add credence to this view, bring retest of 1.1214, then towards 1.1240-50 later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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