Friday, August 21, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-20-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Global Market Rout Continues, Euro and Swiss Franc Firm

China-led global market rout continues today. US stocks open sharply lower with DJIA trading over -150 pts lower initial trading. European indices are broadly lower with FTSE down more than -1.5% at the time of writing. That followed another day of decline in China as the Shanghai composite down -4.27% and closed at 3507.74, barely above the key 3500 handle. In the currency market, Euro and Swiss Franc are the strongest major currencies this week, mainly due to weaknesses elsewhere. Much selling pressure is seen in dollar and sterling as markets pared back rate hike expectations. Commodity currencies are also weak. Released from Canada, retail sales rose 0.6% in June versus expectation of 0.3%. Ex-auto sales rose 0.8% versus expectation of 0.5%. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.3% yoy but missed expectation of 1.4% yoy. Core CPI rose to 2.4% yoy, inline with consensus.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1149; (P) 1.1197 (R1) 1.1287; More....

EUR/USD's rally extends to as high as 1.1306 in early US session and remains firm. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.1436/66 resistance zone. As noted before, the consolidation pattern from 1.1466 has completed with three waves to 1.0807 already. Decisive break of 1.1466 will resume whole rebound from 1.0461. On the downside, below 1.1213 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained above 1.1016 support and bring another rise.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:35 JPY PMI Manufacturing Aug 51.9 52.1 51.2
01:45 CNY PMI Manufacturing Aug 47.1 47.7 47.8
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 9.9 10.2 10.1
07:00 EUR French PMI Manufacturing Aug 48.6 49.7 49.6
07:00 EUR French PMI Services Aug 51.8 52 52
07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Aug 53.2 51.7 51.8
07:30 EUR German PMI Services Aug 53.6 54 53.8
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Aug 52.4 52.2 52.4
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Aug 54.3 54 54
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jul -2.1B -2.3B 8.6B
12:30 CAD CPI M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Jul 1.30% 1.40% 1.00%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Jul 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jul 2.40% 2.40% 2.30%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.60% 0.30% 1.00% 0.90%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jun 0.80% 0.50% 0.90% 0.80%
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug -6.9 -7.1
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency moved higher again, bids are raised to 1.1240-45, 1.1220-25 and 1.1200, buy orders are reported at 1.1180, 1.1150 and 1.1130, buying interest is tipped at 1.1100, 1.1080 and 1.1065, fresh demand is located at 1.1050, 1.1020-25 and 1.1000. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.1325-30 and 1.1350, selling interest should emerge around 1.1380 and 1.1400.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5640

As cable has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.5606 yesterday, adding credence to our bullish view for recent erratic rise from 1.5330 low to extend gain to 1.5740-50, however, overbought condition should limit upside to resistance at 1.5789 and reckon 1.5800-10 would hold from here.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1195

Euro's rally after breaking previous resistance at 1.1214 (now support) suggests the rise from 1.0809 low is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.1310-15, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.1345-50 and price should falter below 1.1380-85 (100% projection of 1.0848-1.1214 measuring from 1.1018), risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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