Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-25-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sentiment Recovered after Selloff, Aided by China Stimulus

Global stock markets recovered from yesterday's selloff and was further supported by stimulus measures from China. DJIA is trading up over 300 pts in initial trading and reclaimed 16000 handle. European indices also rebounded with DAX up 4.7%, CAC up 4.7% and FTSE up 3.0% at the time of writing. In the currency markets, Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc pared back this week's gain while commodity currencies recovered. Nonetheless, Yen remains the strongest major currency so far this week, followed by Euro. Economic data from US saw house price index rose 0.2% mom in June while S&P Case-Shiller 20 cities house price rose 5.0% yoy in June. Markets paid little attention to the data.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.71; (P) 118.86; (R1) 121.57; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation above 116.13 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 61.8% retracement of 125.27 to 116.13 at 119.62 and bring fall resumption. Firm break of 116.38 fibonacci level will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 101.08 to 125.85 at 110.54 next.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Jun -0.20% 0.20%
02:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Index Jul 0.90% 1.00% 0.60%
03:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q3 1.90% 1.90%
06:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Aug 108.3 107.6 108
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Aug 114.8 113.9 113.9
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Aug 102.2 102 102.4 102.3
13:00 USD House Price Index M/M Jun 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jun 5.00% 5.10% 4.94% 5.00%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Jul 507K 510K 482K
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Aug 101.5 93.1 90.9
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to trade lower and bids at 1.1500-10, 1.1480-85 and 1.1465 were filled, however, buy orders are noted at 1.1450 and 1.1420-25, buying interest is tipped at 1.1400-05 and 1.1370-75. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.1500, 1.1520 and 1.1550, sell orders are reported at 1.1565, 1.1580 and 1.1600, sellers are awaiting at 1.1620, 1.1650 and 1.1680, selling interest should emerge around 1.1700 and 1.1720.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.9480

Current rebound has retained our view that further consolidation above yesterday's low at 0.9259 would be seen and near term upside risk remains for retracement to 0.9457-66 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9672-0.9259), however, reckon 0.9480-90 would limit upside and bring another decline later. Below the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9353) would bring test of intra-day support at 0.9316

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Stand aside

As the single currency has retreated after yesterday's rally to 1.1714, retaining our view that consolidation below this level is in store and mild downside bias remains for retracement to 1.1450, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.1403-10 (current level of the upper Kumo and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1107-1.1714), bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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