Monday, August 31, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 9-1-15

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Daily Report: Aussie Steady as RBA Stands Pat and Stays Neutral

Aussie stays steady in tight range against dollar after RBA kept cash rate unchanged at 2.00% as widely expected. The central bank maintained a neutral bias and noted that "further information on economic and financial conditions" are needed to determine the assessment of outlook and monetary policy. Regarding recent turmoils in the financial markets, RBA sounded calm and noted "equity markets have been considerably more volatile of late, associated with developments in China, though other financial markets have been relatively stable." Also released from Australia, building approvals rose 4.2% mom in July, current account deficit widened sharply to AUD -19.0b in Q2. From New Zealand, terms of trade index rose 1.3% qoq in Q2.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7075; (P) 0.7118; (R1) 0.7156; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidations. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited below 0.7438 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.7035 should send the pair through 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.7625 from 0.8161 at 0.7000 to 100% projection at 0.6282.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q2 1.30% -2.00% 1.50% 1.20%
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q2 5.60% 8.90% 7.30%
1:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Aug 49.7 49.7 50
1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Aug 53.4 53.9
1:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q2 -19.0B -15.8B -10.7B -13.5B
1:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jul 4.20% 3.00% -8.20% -5.20%
1:35 CNY Caixin PMI Manufacturing Aug F 47.3 47.2 47.1
1:45 CNY Caixin PMI Services Aug 51.5 53.9 53.8
4:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
7:30 CHF SVME-PMI Aug 49.8 48.7
7:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Aug 55 55.3
7:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Aug F 48.6 48.6
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Aug -4K 9K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. Aug 6.40% 6.40%
7:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug F 53.2 53.2
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug F 52.4 52.4
8:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate Jul P 12.70% 12.70%
8:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Jul 68.3K 66.6K
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jul 0.20% -0.50%
8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Aug 51.9 51.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jul 11.10% 11.10%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jun 0.20% -0.20%
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jul 0.80% 0.10%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Aug 52.8 52.7
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Aug 39 44
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated after meeting resistance at 1.1310 and bids at 1.1265-70 and 1.1250 were filled but buy orders are reported at 1.1225-30 and 1.1200, buying interest should emerge around 1.1185 and 1.1150. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.1275-80, 1.1300-10 and 1.1325, sell orders are expected at 1.1340 and 1.1355-60, more selling interest is tipped at 1.1380, 1.1400 and 1.1425, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7230

The single currency met resistance at 0.7355 on Friday and has retreated again, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen with initial downside risk for another corrective fall, however, reckon 0.7220-25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7026-0.7423) would limit downside and bring another rebound, above 0.7355-64 would bring retest of last week's high at 0.7423.

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Trade Idea : AUD/USD - Sell at 0.7160

As aussie has retreated after meeting renewed selling interest at 0.7206 late last week, consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 0.7070 support but break there is needed to signal correction from 0.7043 has ended, bring retest of this level later. A drop below this support would extend recent downtrend to psychological support at 0.7000 which is likely to hold on first testing, bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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