Thursday, August 20, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-20-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mixed after Jobless Claims, Euro Firm

Dollar weakens notably against Euro and Swiss franc this week but stays mixed elsewhere. Initial jobless claims rose 4k to 277 in the week ended August 15. The four week moving average rose to 271.5k from 266k. Continuing claims rose 24k to 2.25m in the week ended August 8. San Francisco Fed John Williams said that it's a "very costly tradeoff" using monetary to affect house prices when "macroeconomic and financial stability goals are in conflict". He noted that "a typical estimate is that a 1 percent loss in GDP is associated with a 4 percent reduction in house prices." The FOMC minutes released yesterday were seen as mote dovish than expected and prompted some selloff in the greenback.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1047; (P) 1.1090 (R1) 1.1164; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment with focus on 1.1215 resistance. Break there will revive the case that consolidation pattern from 1.1466 has completed with three waves to 1.0807 already. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.1436/66 resistance zone. Below 1.1016 will target a test on 1.0807/0847 support zone.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Jul 3.74B 2.59B 3.58B 3.51B
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Jul 0.00% -0.10% -0.10%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Jul -1.30% -1.40% -1.40%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20% -0.20% -0.10%
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Aug -1 -5 -10
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jun 1.30% 1.00% -1.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 15) 277K 272K 274K 273K
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Jul -0.20% 0.20% 0.60%
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Aug 8.3 6.2 5.7
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jul 5.59M 5.41M 5.49M 5.48M
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 58B 65B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to move higher and offers at 1.1150 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.1185 and 1.1200, selling interest is tipped at 1.1220, 1.1245 and 1.1265, sellers are awaiting at 1.1285 and 1.1300. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1100-10, 1.1080 and 1.1065, buy orders are expected at 1.1050, 1.1020-25 and 1.1000, buying interest is expected at 1.0985, 1.0965 and 1.0950, fresh demand should emerge around 1.0930, 1.0900 and 1.0885.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.9700

The greenback has recovered after intra-day fall to 0.9616, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9684) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.9700-05 would limit upside and bring another decline later to 0.9615-20 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9330-0.9903), however, oversold condition should limit downside to 0.9600 and reckon 0.9570-75 (100% projection of 0.9903-0.9678 measuring from 0.9799) would contain downside

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1115

As the single currency has continued to find good support at 1.1018 yesterday and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting pullback from 1.1214 (last week's high) has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen, above indicated resistance at 1.1189 would add credence to this view, bring retest of 1.1214, then towards 1.1240-50 later but reckon 1.1270-75 would hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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