Monday, August 10, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 8-11-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sterling Lifted by BoE Miles, Aussie Dragged Down by Yuan

US equities staged a strong rebound overnight with DJIA closed up 241.79 pts, or 1.39% at 17615.17. The rebound put the index back above 55 weeks EMA and a key near term fibonacci level at 17397. As we mentioned again, there are risks of medium term reversal but then again, US stocks were supported around 17400 and recovered. There is still a lack of follow through selling for confirming bearish developments. It's reported that sentiments were lifted after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire Precision Castparts Corp, which is a aerospace and energy equipment maker. Meanwhile, Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer said that he'd prefer to see inflation returning to more normal level before hiking interest rates. Nonetheless, he also said that a "large part" of the current very low inflation is "temporary" due to oil and commodity prices.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7368; (P) 0.7394; (R1) 0.7436; More...

AUD/USD was rejected from 0.7447 near term resistance and dropped sharply. Nonetheless, it's holding above 0.7233 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7448 resistance intact. Break of 0.7233 will extend larger down trend to long term retracement level at 0.7182. Meanwhile, break of 0.7448 will indicate short term reversal, on bullish convergence condition 4 hours MACD. In such case, bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7597 support turned resistance first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Jul 1.20% 1.80%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jul 4.10% 3.90% 3.80% 3.90%
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jul 4 10 8
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jul P 6.60%
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Aug 32 29.7
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Aug 64.5 63.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Aug 43.9 42.7
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Jul 205K 202.8K
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q2 P 1.10% -3.10%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 P -0.20% 6.70%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.10% 0.80%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro recovered after finding support at 1.0925, however, offers are still noted at 1.0985, 1.1000 and 1.1020, more sell orders are reported at 1.1050, 1.1065 and 1.1080-85, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.1100, 1.1125 and 1.1150. On the downside, bids remain at 1.0925, 1.0900 and 1.0880, buy orders are expected at 1.0850, 1.0820-25 and 1.0800, buying interest should emerge around 1.0780 and 1.0750 (barrier).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7000

Although the single currency rose marginally above Friday's high of 0.7096, lack of follow through buying and current retreat from 0.7097 suggest consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.7030 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.7000 would limit downside and bring another rebound later, above resistance at 0.7097-98 would encourage for a stronger rebound to 0.7120-25 but resistance at 0.7161 should cap upside, bring further choppy trading later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.3060

Despite intra-day rebound to 1.3182, as the greenback has retreated again after faltering below resistance at 1.3184 (Friday's high), suggesting further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as support at 1.3057 (Friday's low) holds, prospect of another rebound remains, above 1.3197 resistance would bring retest of last week's high at 1.3213, break there would extend recent rally to 1.3250-60 but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3300 and price should falter below 1.3350

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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