Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 8-13-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Stays Weak as Yuan Devaluated for Third Day

Dollar stays generally weak this week, except against Aussie and Yen, even though sentiments seemed to have stabilized. DJIA recovered from sharp early loss and closed nearly flat down -0.33 pts. There were continuous talk that China's devaluation of yuan would delay Fed's rate hike. Markets pushed down the chance of a September hike through 40% to as low as 39%. That compared to over 50% last week. Meanwhile, the chance for a December hike stood above 65%. China's move was seen as deflationary to US and could trigger much uncertainty in the global financial markets. Meanwhile, some economists noted that the risks for Fed to hike too early or too late are heavily skewed.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2902; (P) 1.3029; (R1) 1.3107; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.3213. Further rise is still expected as long as 1.2859 support holds. Above 1.3213 will target next projection level at 1.3287. Meanwhile, break of 1.2859 will confirm near term topping with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen back to 55 days EMA (now at 1.2762).

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Jul 53.5 55.2 55.1
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Jul 44% 42% 40%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jun -7.90% -4.90% 0.60%
1:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Aug 3.70% 3.40%
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jul F 0.20% 0.20%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul F 0.20% 0.20%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Jul -0.10%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jul -6.10%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jun 0.30% 0.20%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jul 0.40% -0.30%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jul 0.50% -0.10%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jul -1.00% -0.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 8) 272K 270K
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jun 0.30% 0.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 32B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm tone after intra-day rally but sell orders are still noted at 1.1165 and 1.1180, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.1200, 1.1220 and 1.1245-50. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.1100-10, 1.1080 and 1.1050, buy orders are reported at 1.1020, 1.1000 and 1.0985, buying interest is located at 1.0965 and 1.0950, fresh demand should emerge around 1.0900, 1.0880 and 1.0850.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea : EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7085

The single currency has rallied after finding renewed buying interest at 0.7038 yesterday and the intra-day breach of previous resistance at 0.7161 suggests another leg of corrective rise from 0.6936 is underway for gain towards 0.7200 but reckon another previous resistance at 0.7224 would hold from here, bring retreat later this week.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy at 137.70

The single currency has surged again after breaking resistance at 137.80, adding credence to our view that the erratic rise from 133.31 is still in progress and may extend further gain to 139.15-20, then 139.60-70, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside today and price should falter well below psychological resistance at 140.00, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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