Sunday, August 16, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 8-17-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Mildly Lower as Japan Economy Contracted

The Japan yen is mildly lower today as economic data showed that the economy contracted in Q2. GDP dropped -0.4% qoq, down from Q1's 1.0% qoq growth. Nonetheless, that was slightly better than expectation of -0.5% qoq fall. GDP deflator rose 1.6% yoy, much lower than prior quarter's 3.4% yoy and missed expectation of 2.1% yoy. There have been, to some degree, continuous speculation that BoJ would need to provide additional stimulus to boost the economy and inflation. On the other hand, some economists argue that if would be the government that's required to provide additional fiscal stimulus. In particular, Japan, like other Asian countries, could start to feel the impact of deeper slowdown in China's economy during the second half of the year. Markets would look into the next economic projections from BoJ to be released later in October, which would likely see some downward revisions in both GDP and inflation forecast. Nikkei in trading mildly higher by 70 pts at the time of writing.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.07; (P) 124.29; (R1) 124.54; More...

USD/JPY recovers mildly today abut stays in consolidation from 125.27. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Main focus is on 123.00 support. Firm break there will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another falling leg towards 120.40 support. Nonetheless, decisive break of 125.85 will confirm larger up trend resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Aug -0.80% 0.10%
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.40% -0.50% 1.00%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 P 1.60% 2.10% 3.40%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jun -0.60% -1.80%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jun 19.3B 21.2B
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jun -5.45B
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Aug 5 3.86
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 61 60
20:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Jun $93.0B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.1189, however, bids are still noted at 1.1125, 1.1100 and 1.1085, buy orders are reported at 1.1050, 1.1020, 1.1000, buying interest is tipped at 1.0985, 1.0965 and 1.0950. On the upside, offers remain at 1.1190-00 and 1.1220, selling interest is expected at 1.1245, 1.1265 and 1.1285, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7070

As the single currency has retreated after faltering below this week's high of 0.7170, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and below yesterday's low of 0.7101 would bring stronger pullback to 0.7070-75, however, support at 0.7038 would remain intact, bring another rise later. Above 0.7170 would adds credence to our view that another leg of corrective rise from 0.6936 low is underway for further gain towards 0.7200

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Stand aside

Near term consolidation is likely to continue and reckon upside would be limited to 1.3100, bring another corrective fall towards support area at 1.2941-52, break there would signal temporary top has been formed at 1.3213 earlier, bring retracement of recent upmove in wave iv to 1.2900, then towards support at 1.2862 which is likely to hold from here, bring another rise later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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