Sunday, August 2, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 8-3-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Asian Markets Weighed Down by China Data

Asian markets open the week generally lower as worry over China's economy continues. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index dropped as much as -1% and is heading back to this year's low made back in July. Nikkei is also trading down -100 pts, or nearly -0.5% at the time of writing. The Caixin/Market PMI PMI manufacturing index was finalized at 47.8 in July, revised down from initial estimate of 48.2. That's also the lowest level since November 2011. The statement noted that "the downturn in China's manufacturing sector intensified at the start of the third quarter." And, "renewed falls in both total new work and new export orders led manufacturers to cut production at the fastest rate since November 2011." The official PMI manufacturing dropped to to in July, hitting five month low. Also released in Asian session, Japan PMI manufacturing was revised down to 51.2 in July. Australia TD securities inflation expectation rose 0.2% mom in July, HIA new home sales rose 0.5% mom in June.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2990; (P) 1.3040; (R1) 1.3141; More...

USD/CAD's break of 1.3102 suggests that recent rally has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally should now extend to next projection level at 1.3287. On the downside, break of 1.2859 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Jul 0.20% 0.10%
1:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales M/M Jun 0.50% -2.30%
1:35 JPY PMI Manufacturing Jul F 51.2 51.4 51.4
1:45 CNY Caixin PMI Manufacturing Jul F 47.8 48.4 48.2
7:30 CHF SVME PMI Jul 50.6 50
7:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Jul 54.6 54.1
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul F 52.2 52.2
8:30 GBP UK PMI Manufacturing Jul 51.6 51.4
12:30 USD Personal Income Jun 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Jun 0.20% 0.90%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Jun 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jun 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jun 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jun 1.20% 1.20%
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jun 0.70% 0.80%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Jul 53.5 53.5
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Jul 49.5 49.5
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has fallen again after brief recovery, bids at 1.0940 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.0900 and 1.0880, buying interest is reported at 1.0860, 1.0820-25 and 1.0800, fresh demand is tipped at 1.0780, 1.0750 barrier (stops below) and 1.0720. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.0980-85, 1.1000 and 1.1020, sell orders are expected at 1.1050, 1.1065 and 1.1080-85, selling interest should emerge around 1.1100, 1.1120 and 1.1160, sellers are awaiting at 1.1185 and 1.1200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.2900

The greenback found renewed buying interest at 1.2862 yesterday and has staged a rebound, retaining our bullishness and above 1.3050-60 would signal the retreat from 1.3103 has ended, bring retest of this level, once this resistance is penetrated, this would extend recent wave iii to 1.3150-60, then 1.3200, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3250-60 and price should falter below 1.3300-10, bring correction later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold long entered at 0.7285

Although aussie has retreated again after faltering below resistance at 0.7351, as long as this week's low at 0.7257 holds, consolidation with mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above said resistance at 0.7351 would bring recovery to 0.7390-00, however, reckon resistance at 0.7449 (last week's high) would limit upside and resistance at 0.7489 should hold from here, bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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