Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 8-5-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Lifted by Fed Lockhart

Dollar surged overnight as Atlanta Fed Dennis Lockhart expressed his support for rate hike in September. Lockhart is seen by some analysts as neutral to slightly dovish, and hence his comments were taken quite seriously. He said in an interview with Wall Street Journal that it's a "high bar" not to act for him and "it will take a significant deterioration in the economic picture for me to be disinclined to move ahead." Meanwhile, the economy was ready and it was an "appropriate time to make a change" to monetary policies. The main focus will now be turned to ADP employment report later today. The ADP report is expected to show 210k growth in private sectors jobs in July. And non-farm payroll to be released on Friday will determine the greenback's fate in near term.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9704; (P) 0.9746; (R1) 0.9826; More....

USD/CHF's rally from 0.9072 resumed by taking out 0.9718 and reaches as high as 0.9790 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. The firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0127 to 0.9072 at 0.9724 should now pave the way to retest 1.0127 resistance. On the downside, below 0.9667 minor support will turn bias neutral first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q2 0.30% 0.50% 0.70% 0.60%
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q2 5.90% 5.90% 5.80%
22:45 NZD Labor Cost Private Sector Q/Q Q2 0.50% 0.50% 0.30%
22:45 NZD Private Wages ex Overtime Q/Q Q2 1.80% 1.80% 1.80%
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jul -1.40% -1.30%
1:45 CNY Caixin PMI Services Jul 53.8 52.2 51.8
7:15 CHF CPI M/M Jul -0.40% 0.10%
7:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Jul -1.10% -1.00%
7:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Jul 53.6 53.4
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Jul F 53.8 53.8
8:30 GBP Services PMI Jul 58 58.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jun -0.20% 0.20%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jul 210K 237K
12:30 USD Trade Balance Jun -$42.40B -$41.87B
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jun -3.34B
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Jul 56.3 56
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.2M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro recovered from intra-day low of 1.0932, however, offers are still noted at 1.0980, 1.1000 and 1.1020, sell orders are reported at 1.1050, 1.1065 and 1.1080-85, selling interest is tipped at 1.1100, 1.1120 and, sellers are awaiting at 1.1185 and 1.1200 (stops above). On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0950, 1.0925-30 and 1.0900, buy orders are expected at 1.0880, 1.0860 and 1.0820-25, buying interest should emerge around 1.0800, 1.0780 and 1.0750 barrier (stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9670

As the greenback has risen again after brief retreat to 0.9668 and broke above previous resistance at 0.9719, adding credence to our view that recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 0.9750 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9780-85

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1050

As the single currency has recovered after intra-day brief fall to 1.0932, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.0999-1.1004) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.1050 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support would bring test of support at 1.0921, break there would add credence to our view that rebound from 1.0893 has ended at 1.1114

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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