Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 8-6-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Aussie Mildly Lower after Job Data, BoE Watched

Aussie is mildly lower against the greenback today after release of employment data. The job market grew 38.5k in July, much better than expectation of 13.9k. 12.4k full time jobs and 26.1k part time jobs were added. However, unemployment rose to 6.3% versus expectation of 6.0% as more people entered the job market. The participation rate jumped from 64.8% to 65.1%. Some economists noted that while the headline growth number was positive, the high unemployment rate should be treated with caution as it's usually consistent with sub-trend growth and weak demand. AUD/USD recovered earlier this week after RBA left interest rate unchanged at 2.00% and issued a rather neutral statement. Nonetheless, technically, AUD/USD is held below 0.7448 resistance and thus maintained a near term bearish outlook.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7327; (P) 0.7360; (R1) 0.7388; More...

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7233/7448 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 0.7448 resistance holds, current decline is expected for long term retracement level at 0.7182. Meanwhile, break of 0.7448 will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7597 support turned resistance first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD Employment Change Jul 38.5K 13.9K 7.3K 7.0K
1:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Jul 6.30% 6.00% 6.00% 6.10%
5:00 JPY Leading Index Jun P 106.9 106.2
5:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Jul -8 -6
6:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Jun 0.10% -0.20%
8:10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI Jul 50.4
8:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jun 0.10% 0.40%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jun 2.20% 2.10%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jun 0.10% -0.60%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jun 0.40% 1.00%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 375B 375B
11:00 GBP Bank of England Inflation Report
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul 42.70%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 1) 269K 267K
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jul 0.70%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 52B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro found support at 1.0848 and has staged a strong rebound in US morning, offers at 1.0885, 1.0900 and 1.0930 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.0950, 1.0980 and 1.1000, selling interest should emerge around 1.1020, 1.1050 and 1.1065, sellers are awaiting at 1.1080-85 and 1.1100. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.0875-80, 1.0840-45 and 1.0820-25, buying interest is tipped at 1.0800, 1.0780 and 1.0750 barrier, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.0700.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Buy at 124.55

As the greenback has rallied after finding renewed buying interest just above 124.00 and broke above previous resistance at 124.58 (last week's high), suggesting recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 125.25-30 and possibly 125.50-55 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond previous chart resistance at 125.86

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9730

As the greenback has surged again after finding renewed buying interest at 0.9668 yesterday and broke above previous resistance at 0.9719, adding credence to our view that recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 0.9820-25 (100% projection of 0.9549-0.9705 measuring from 0.9668) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9860-65

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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