Thursday, August 6, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 8-7-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Mixed, Stocks Soft ahead of Non-Farm Payroll

Dollar is trading in recent range against euro and sterling as focus turns to non-farm payroll report from US today. The greenback gained against swiss franc and yen this week and remains firm. Markets are expecting NFP to show 225k growth in July with unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3%. Wage growth will also be a focus as average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.2% mom in July. The leading indicators for NFP were mixed. ADP private employment missed expectations and rose only 185k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing also dropped from 55.5 to 52.7. Nonetheless, employment component of ISM non-manufacturing jumped sharply from 52.7 to 59.6. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims also dropped quite notably from 279k to 268k. It's still uncertain whether Fed will hike rate in September and FOMC members will look into today's NFP to find the needed evidence for "some further improvement in labor market" for their decisions.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3069; (P) 1.3132; (R1) 1.3172; More...

A temporary top is in place at 1.3213 and intraday bias is turned neutral in USD/CAD first. Some consolidations would be seen but near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.2859 support holds. Above 1.3213 will extend recent up trend to next projection level at 1.3287. Meanwhile, break of 1.2859 will confirm near term topping with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
1:30 AUD Home Loans Jun 4.40% 4.60% -6.10% -7.30%
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Jul 3.30% 3.30%
6:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jun 0.30% 0.00%
6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jun 23.2B 22.8B
7:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Jul 516.2B
8:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jun -9.1B -8.0B
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jul 225K 223K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jul 5.30% 5.30%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jul 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Jul 5.7K -6.4K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Jul 6.80% 6.80%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jun -14.50%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jul 55.9
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: Cable tumbled after BOE, bids at 1.5570-80, 1.5525-35, 1.5500 and 1.5485 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.5465-70 and 1.5450, buying interest should emerge around 1.5425-30 and 1.5400. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.5555-60, 1.5590-00 and 1.5620-25, sell orders are expected at 1.5640-50 (stops above), 1.5680 and 1.5700-10 (stops above), selling interest is tipped at 1.5725-30 and 1.5750.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7000

Although the single currency fell to 0.6951 yesterday, as euro has rebounded again after holding above recent low at 0.6936, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen with mild upside bias for another bounce to 0.7098 resistance, break there would encourage for a stronger rebound to 0.7120-25, however, resistance at 0.7161 should cap upside, bring further choppy trading later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.3060

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after resuming recent upmove, bullishness remains for further gain to 1.3210-15, then 1.3250, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3300 and price should falter below 1.3350 (50% projection of 1.2128-1.3103 measuring from 1.2862), bring correction later. We are keeping our count that complex wave iv from 1.2835 ended at 1.1920

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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