Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-12-15

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Broadly Lower and China Devaluation Could Delay Fed Hike

The global markets are experience strong impact from China's devaluation of yuan today. European indices drop for another day with DAX down more than -2.5% and is pressing 11000 handle. CAC broke 5000 and is trading down -2.6%. FTSE is also down -1.3% at the time of writing. DJIA open more than -100 pts, or -0.7% lower and took out last week's low. Fear of currency war is weighing down sentiments. Meanwhile, the greenback is shot down on talk that China's yuan devaluation would delay Fed's rate hike. Markets are pricing in less than 50% odds of September hike, and dropped at least -5% from last week. Some economists noted that China's move would have deflationary effect to US and pose threat to global risk markets.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0972; (P) 1.1030 (R1) 1.1100; More....

EUR/USD rises strongly today and break of 1.1128 resistance indicates resumption of rebound from 1.0807. More importantly, the development suggests that consolidation pattern from 1.1466 has completed at 1.0807. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 1.1436/66 resistance zone next. On the downside, though, below 1.1023 minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn bias neutral first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BOJ Minutes for July 14-15 Meeting
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jul -3.00% -2.90% -2.40%
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Aug 7.80% -3.20%
1:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q2 0.60% 0.60% 0.50%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun F 1.10% 0.80% 0.80%
4:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jun 0.30% 0.10% -0.70% -0.60%
5:30 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Jul 10.50% 10.60% 10.60%
5:30 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Jul 6.00% 6.60% 6.80%
5:30 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Jul 11.20% 11.50% 11.40%
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Jul -4.9K 1.4K 7.0K
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jun 5.60% 5.60% 5.60%
8:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Jun 2.40% 2.80% 3.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jun -0.40% -0.10% -0.40%
9:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Aug 5.9 -5.4
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.4M
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Jul -113.5B 51.8B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm tone after intra-day rally but sell orders are still noted at 1.1165 and 1.1180, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.1200, 1.1220 and 1.1245-50. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.1100-10, 1.1080 and 1.1050, buy orders are reported at 1.1020, 1.1000 and 1.0985, buying interest is located at 1.0965 and 1.0950, fresh demand should emerge around 1.0900, 1.0880 and 1.0850.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Hold long entered at 1.5535

The British pound found renewed buying interest at 1.5535 and rebounded in line with our bullish expectation, retaining our view that the rise from 1.5425 low is still in progress, above resistance at 1.5617 resistance would extend gain towards previous resistance at 1.5651 (last week's high) but price should falter below another resistance at 1.5679, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1070

The single currency only eased to 1.1010 before finding renewed buying interest and rising again, adding credence to our view that the rebound from 1.0848 low is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.1170-75, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1200 and reckon 1.1240-50 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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