Thursday, August 13, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-13-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovers as PBoC Assured Strong Yuan

Dollar recovered some ground today as sentiments stabilized a little. PBoC vice governor Yi Gang tried to calm the markets and said the renminbi remains a strong currency. And he emphasized that the move this week, as see by others as devaluation, was intended to give the exchange rate a more market oriented mechanism. And he said the claim that China aims at an eventual -10% depreciation of the yuan was "nonsense".

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1051; (P) 1.1132 (R1) 1.1241; More....

EUR/USD retreats after failing to take out 1.1215 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rise is still expected as long as 1.1023 support holds. Current development suggests that consolidation pattern from 1.1466 has completed at 1.0807. Above 1.1215 will target 1.1436/66 resistance zone next. On the downside, though, below 1.1023 minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn bias back to the downside.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Jul 53.5 55.2 55.1
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Jul 44% 42% 40%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jun -7.90% -4.90% 0.60%
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Aug 3.70% 3.40%
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jul F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Jul -0.30% -0.10%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jul -6.40% -6.10%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jun 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jul 0.60% 0.40% -0.30%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jul 0.40% 0.50% -0.10% 0.40%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jul -0.90% -1.00% -0.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 8) 274K 272K 270K 269K
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jun 0.30% 0.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 32B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded lower after retreating from yesterday's high of 1.1214, bids at 1.1100 and 1.1085 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.1050 and 1.1020, buying interest is tipped at 1.1000 and 1.0985, fresh demand is located at 1.0965, 1.0950 and further out at 1.0900. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.1125, 1.1150-55 and 1.1180, selling interest is expected at 1.1200, 1.1220 (stops above) and 1.1245-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold short entered at 124.50

Although dollar dropped sharply from 125.28 to 123.79 yesterday, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 123.80 and current rebound from 123.79 suggest consolidation would be seen, however, reckon the lower Kumo (now at 124.79) would cap upside, bring another decline later, below 124.05-10 would bring test of said support at 123.79 but break there is needed to add credence to our view that top has been formed at 125.28, bring subsequent fall towards previous support at 123.52.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short at 0.9770

The greenback found good support at 0.9678 yesterday and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting caution on our short position entered at 0.9770 and previous support at 0.9802 needs to hold to retain prospect of another fall, below 0.9730 would signal the rebound from 0.9678 has ended, bring another test of this support, below there would extend the fall from 0.9903 top for retracement of early upmove to 0.9668 support and possibly 0.9644

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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