Friday, August 14, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-14-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Shrugged off Weak GDP Data

Euro remains steady today even after a string of weak economic data. Eurozone GDP growth slowed to 0.3% qoq in Q2 versus expectation of 0.4% qoq. German GDP growth accelerated to 0.4% qoq but missed expectation of 0.5% qoq. French GDP stagnated at 0.0% qoq versus expectation of 0.2% qoq. Italian GDP growth also slowed to 0.2% qoq versus expectation of 0.3% qoq. Eurozone CPI was finalized at 0.2% yoy in July, unrevised. Core CPI was unchanged at 1.0%. Released from UK, construction output rose 0.9% mom in June versus expectation of 2.5% mom. Overall, Euro remains the strongest major currency in this highly volatile week.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1090; (P) 1.1139 (R1) 1.1199; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is still expected as long as 1.1023 support holds. Current development suggests that consolidation pattern from 1.1466 has completed at 1.0807. Above 1.1215 will target 1.1436/66 resistance zone next. On the downside, though, below 1.1023 minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn bias back to the downside.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Q/Q Q2 0.10% 0.50% 2.70% 2.30%
05:30 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.00% 0.20% 0.60% 0.70%
06:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.40% 0.50% 0.30%
08:00 EUR Italian GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
08:30 GBP Construction Output M/M Jun 0.90% 2.40% -1.30% -1.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.30% 0.40% 0.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Jul -0.60% 0.00% 0.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jul F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jul F 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jun 1.20% 2.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Jul 0.20% 0.10% 0.40%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jul -0.80% -0.90% -0.70%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jul 0.30% 0.10% 0.30%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jul 0.60% 0.50% 0.80%
13:15 USD Industrial Production Jul 0.60% 0.30% 0.30% 0.10%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jul 78.00% 78.00% 78.40% 77.70%
14:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Aug P 94 93.1
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.1189, however, bids are still noted at 1.1125, 1.1100 and 1.1085, buy orders are reported at 1.1050, 1.1020, 1.1000, buying interest is tipped at 1.0985, 1.0965 and 1.0950. On the upside, offers remain at 1.1190-00 and 1.1220, selling interest is expected at 1.1245, 1.1265 and 1.1285, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short at 0.9770

Dollar's near term sideways trading is likely to continue but as long as previous support at 0.9802 holds, mild downside bias remains for another fall, below 0.9730 would signal the rebound from 0.9678 has ended, bring another test of this support, below there would extend the fall from 0.9903 top for retracement of early upmove to 0.9668 support and possibly 0.9644 but reckon oversold condition would limit downside to 0.9615-20

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5550

Although the British pound rebounded after finding support at 1.5573 yesterday, reckon upside would be limited and as long as resistance at 1.5660 holds, further consolidation would be seen and near term downside risk remains for another retreat later, below 1.5585-90 would bring retracement to 1.5550 but support at 1.5535 should hold, bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.5660 would extend recent erratic rise to 1.5679, then retest of 1.5690 resistance.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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