Monday, August 17, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-17-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Forex Markets Staying in Familiar Range

There is no clear direction in the currency market today. While some notable weakness is seen in Canadian dollar, USD/CAD is kept well below recent resistance of 1.3213. Meanwhile, dollar stays mixed against other major currencies despite weak economic data. The Empire State manufacturing index nose-dived to -14.9 in August versus expectation of a rise to 5. That was the worst reading since April 2009. Looking at the details, new orders tumbled to -15.7 while shipments dropped to -7.9. Components including unfilled orders, delivery time, inventories and employee workweek also came in negative. The brighter point was in future business activity, which rose to 33.6. Released from Canada, International securities transactions rose to CAD 8.51b in June.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.07; (P) 124.29; (R1) 124.54; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Main focus is on 123.00 support. Firm break there will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another falling leg towards 120.40 support. Nonetheless, decisive break of 125.85 will confirm larger up trend resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Aug -0.80% 0.10%
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.40% -0.50% 1.00%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 P 1.60% 2.10% 3.40%
07:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jun -0.90% -0.60% -1.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jun 21.9B 19.3B 21.2B 21.3B
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jun 8.51B -5.95B -5.45B -5.46B
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Aug -14.9 5 3.86
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 61 61 60
20:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Jun $93.0B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found support at 1.1062 and has recovered but sell orders are still noted at 1.1125, 1.1150 and 1.1180, selling interest is tipped at 1.1200, 1.1220 and 1.1245, sellers are awaiting at 1.1265, 1.1285 and 1.1300. On the downside, bids remain at 1.1050-60, 1.1020 and 1.1000, buy orders are expected at 1.0985, 1.0965 and 1.0950, buying interest should emerge around 1.0930 and 1.0900.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5665

Although the British pound jumped briefly to 1.5689, as cable has retreated after faltering below indicated previous resistance at 1.5690, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and as long as this level holds, mild downside bias is seen for test of support at 1.5589 (Friday's low) but break of 1.5573 support is needed to signal top is formed, bring further fall towards previous support at 1.5535 later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold short entered at 124.50

The greenback has rebounded again after finding good support at 124.05 and further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as indicated resistance at 124.63 holds, mild downside bias remains for another fall to said support, break there would bring test of support at 123.79 but below there is needed to add credence to our view that top has been formed at 125.28, bring subsequent fall towards previous support at 123.52.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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