Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-4-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Forex Markets Steady With Aussie in Strength

The forex markets are relatively quiet today except that clear strength is seen in Aussie. Traders are cautiously awaiting the more important events later this week. In particular, that include ADP job and ISM services tomorrow, BoE on Thursday and US non-farm payroll on Friday. The data released today triggered little reactions. Eurozone PPI dropped -0.1% mom, -2.2% yoy in June versus expectation of -0.1% mom, -2.3% yoy. From UK, construction PMI dropped to 57.1 in July versus expectation of rise to 58.5. UK Nationwide house price rose 0.4% mom in July, inline with consensus. From Japan, labor cash earnings dropped -2.4% yoy in June versus expectation of 0.9% yoy. Japan monetary base rose 32.8% yoy in July versus expectation of 32.2% yoy. From Australia, retail sales rose 0.7% mom in June, much better than expectation of 0.4% mom. Trade deficits widened to AUD -2.93b in June but was smaller than expectation of AUD -3.06b.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5551; (P) 1.5597; (R1) 1.5631; More...

GBP/USD continues to stay in range of 1.5465/5689 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that another rise is mildly in favor 1.5465 minor support holds. Above 1.5689 will target 1.5929 resistance and break will extend the larger rise to 61.8% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4565 at 1.6187. On the downside, below 1.54654 minor support will turn focus back to 1.5169 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jul 32.80% 32.20% 34.20%
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jun -2.93B -3.06B -2.75B -2.68B
1:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.70% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Jun -2.40% 0.90% 0.60% 0.70%
4:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices M/M Jul 0.40% 0.40% -0.20%
8:30 GBP Construction PMI Jul 57.1 58.5 58.1
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jun -0.10% -0.10% 0.00%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jun -2.20% -2.30% -2.00%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Jun 1.70% -1.00%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro recovered from intra-day low of 1.0932, however, offers are still noted at 1.0980, 1.1000 and 1.1020, sell orders are reported at 1.1050, 1.1065 and 1.1080-85, selling interest is tipped at 1.1100, 1.1120 and, sellers are awaiting at 1.1185 and 1.1200 (stops above). On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0950, 1.0925-30 and 1.0900, buy orders are expected at 1.0880, 1.0860 and 1.0820-25, buying interest should emerge around 1.0800, 1.0780 and 1.0750 barrier (stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1050

As the single currency has recovered after intra-day brief fall to 1.0932, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.0999-1.1004) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.1050 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support would bring test of support at 1.0921, break there would add credence to our view that rebound from 1.0893 has ended at 1.1114

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Stand aside

Despite retreating from yesterday's high of 124.27, below 123.80 is needed to suggest the rebound from 123.52 has ended, bring another test of this level, break there would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 124.58 last week, then further fall to 123.33 support would follow but reckon support at 123.01 (last week's low) would hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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