Thursday, August 6, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-6-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Tumbles after BoE Super Thursday

BoE voted 8-1 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and unanimously to leave the asset purchase program at 375B pound in August. Unlike previously, the central bank today released a 3-page policy statement, the meeting minutes and the quarterly inflation at the same time. Ian McCafferty was the only dissenter as he opted for a 25 bps increase in the policy rate. This is surprising as we, as well as the market in general, had anticipated at least 2 members voting for a rate hike. The minutes suggested that the near-term outlook for inflation is "muted" while the decline in energy prices would weigh on inflation at least until mid-2016. The information sent today was overall more dovish than previously expected. As such, British pound slipped on softer rate hike speculations.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5535; (P) 1.5593; (R1) 1.5660; More...

Sterling drops sharply today but is being held by 1.5465 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 1.5465 will indicate that rebound from 1.5329 is completed. more importantly, the fall from 1.5929 is likely resuming. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5329 support first. Meanwhile, above 1.5689 will target 1.5929 resistance and break will extend the larger rise to 61.8% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4565 at 1.6187.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Employment Change Jul 38.5K 13.9K 7.3K 7.0K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Jul 6.30% 6.00% 6.00% 6.10%
05:00 JPY Leading Index Jun P 107.2 106.9 106.2
05:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Jul -19 -8 -6
06:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Jun 2.00% 0.10% -0.20%
08:10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI Jul 54.2 50.4
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jun -0.40% 0.10% 0.40% 0.30%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jun 1.50% 2.20% 2.10% 1.90%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jun 0.20% 0.10% -0.60%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jun 0.50% 0.40% 1.00%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 375B 375B 375B
11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 1--0--8 2--0--7 0--0--9
11:00 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
11:00 GBP Bank of England Inflation Report
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul 125.40% 42.70%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 1) 270K 269K 267K
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jul 0.70%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 52B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: Cable tumbled after BOE, bids at 1.5570-80, 1.5525-35, 1.5500 and 1.5485 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.5465-70 and 1.5450, buying interest should emerge around 1.5425-30 and 1.5400. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.5555-60, 1.5590-00 and 1.5620-25, sell orders are expected at 1.5640-50 (stops above), 1.5680 and 1.5700-10 (stops above), selling interest is tipped at 1.5725-30 and 1.5750.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5555

Cable's intra-day selloff below previous support at 1.5527 (yesterday's low) confirms top has been formed at 1.5690 last week and bearishness is seen for test of previous support at 1.5467, once this level is penetrated, this would signal early rebound from 1.5330 has ended at 1.5690, bring further weakness to 1.5420-30, then 1.5400.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9740

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 0.9719, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and may extend gain to 0.9857-61 (50% projection of 0.9644-0.9822 measuring from 0.9768 and 1.236 times projection of 0.9549-0.9705 measuring from 0.9668) but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9900-10

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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