Friday, August 7, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-7-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rises on Solid NFP, Strength Limited

Dollar strengthens in early US session after release of solid but unspectacular job data. But there is no clear follow through buying in the greenback yet. Strength of the dollar mainly centers against Swiss Franc and Yen. Non-farm payroll grew 215k in July versus expectation of 225k. Prior month's figure was revised up from 223k to 231k. Unemployment was unchanged at seven year low of 5.3% with participation rate held at 62.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom in July, inline with consensus. The set of job data was solid and should provide enough evidence of "some further improvements" for Fed to lift interest rate in September. But the data wasn't strong enough to make it a certainty.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9767; (P) 0.9807; (R1) 0.9848; More....

USD/CHF's rally continues today and the firm break of near term channel indicates some acceleration. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rise 0.9072 should target a test on 1.0127 resistance. On the downside, below 0.9766 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Home Loans Jun 4.40% 4.60% -6.10% -7.30%
03:18 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Jul 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jun -1.40% 0.30% 0.00%
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jun 22.0B 23.2B 22.8B
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Jul 531.1B 516.2B 516.0B
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jun -9.2B -9.1B -8.0B -8.4B
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jul 215K 225K 223K 231K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jul 5.30% 5.30% 5.30%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jul 0.20% 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Jul 6.6K 5.7K -6.4K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Jul 6.80% 6.80% 6.80%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jun 5.00% -14.50%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jul 53 55.9
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

CHF: The greenback has maintained a firm undertone after rising to 0.9848 yesterday, however, offers are still noted at 0.9850-60 and 0.9885, selling interest is tipped further out at 0.9900, 0.9930 and 0.9950. On the downside, bids are raised to 0.9800 and 0.9775, buy orders are reported at 0.9740-50 and 0.9720, buying interest is expected at 0.9700-05 and 0.9680, fresh demand should emerge around 0.9660-65 and 0.9640-45 (stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5545

As cable has remained under pressure after intra-day brief rebound, bearishness remains for the decline from 1.5690 to extend further weakness, break of support at 1.5467 would bring subsequent fall to 1.5420-30, then towards 1.5400, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5370-75, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.0910

Although the single currency rebounded briefly to 1.0975, euro met renewed selling interest there and has retreated sharply, suggesting the rebound from 1.0848 (this week's low) has ended there and retest of said support would be seen, however, break there is needed to signal the fall from 1.1130 top has resumed and extend weakness towards previous support at 1.0809 but oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below there

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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