Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 9-16-15

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Bond Yield Jumped ahead of FOMC, Sterling Soft as Job Data Awaited

While markets are preparing cautious for the FOMC rate decision on Thursday, US equities staged a rally overnight. DJIA rose 228.89 pts, or 1.4% to close at 16599.85 after breaching 16600 handle. The larger moves were found in the bond markets. Two year treasury yield rose to 0.798%, highest level since April 2011. Ten year yield and thirty year yield also extended recent rebound and broke out of recent range. Latest futures data showed markets are pricing in 25% chance of a hike this week but traders remained doubtful on the issue. Nonetheless, there were talks that some traders, in particular bond traders, are preparing for a violent move in the markets in case of a hike, that would shock the markets. Dollar, on the other hand, is mixed. US will release CPI and NAHB housing market index today.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5295; (P) 1.5376; (R1) 1.5422; More...

The breach of 1.5338 minor support suggests that the recovery from 1.5164 is already completed at 1.5475. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.5164 support. Break there will revive the case that rebound from 1.4565 has completed at 1.5929. And deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4565 to 1.5929 at 1.5086 and below. Meanwhile, above 1.5475 will turn focus back to 1.5817 resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q2 -1.22B -1.51B 0.66B 0.82B
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Aug -0.30% 0.00% 0.10%
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Aug -5.1K -4.9K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Aug 2.30%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jul 5.60% 5.60%
9:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Sep 5.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Aug -0.60% -0.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug F 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Aug F 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jul 1.20%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Aug 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.90% 1.80%
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jul 8.51B
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 61 61
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.6M
20:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Jul $103.1B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to trade in familiar range, offers are still noted at 1.1330, 1.1355-60 and 1.1375, sell orders are expected at 1.1390-00 and 1.1420, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1450. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1285 and 1.1265-70, buying interest is tipped at 1.1250, 1.1225 and 1.1200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7300

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound from 0.7240 (last week's low), retaining our view that consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain to resistance at 0.7376, however, break of resistance at 0.7395 is needed to signal the correction from 0.7423 (last month's high) has ended, bring further gain to this level.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Hold long entered at 135.00

As the single currency has retreated again after meeting resistance at 136.42, suggesting further consolidation below yesterday's high at 137.05 would be seen, however, reckon 134.75 minor support would contain downside and bring another rebound later, above 136.42 would signal the retreat from 137.05 has ended, bring retest of this level.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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