Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 9-23-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: China Data Sends Equities and Aussie Lower

Asian equities tumble broadly in response to weak China data, which also drags down Aussie and Kiwi. At the time of writing, China Shanghai composite is losing -60 pts or -1.85%. Hong Kong HSI is dropping -600 pts, or -2.8%. Japan is still on holiday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.702/3 for the moment after dipping to 0.7018 and is set to take on 0.7 handle. NZD/USD is also heading back to recent low of 0.6251. Overall in the currency markets, Yen is the strongest so far this week on risk aversion. That's closely followed by dollar as post FOMC rebound extends. Aussie and Kiwi turned to be the weakest one while Euro follows on talk of expansion of stimulus by ECB.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7043; (P) 0.7101; (R1) 0.7145; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 07278 continues today and reaches as low as 0.7018 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 0.6905 support. At this point, we'd expect some support from there to bring rebound to extend the consolidation pattern from 0.6905. Above 0.7120 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 0.7278. In that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to complete the consolidation. Nonetheless, firm break of 0.6905 will bring down trend resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Jul 0.30% -0.20% -0.30%
1:45 CNY Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep P 47 47.8 47.3
7:00 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Sep P 49.2 48.3
7:00 EUR France Services PMI Sep P 50.9 50.6
7:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Sep P 52.8 53.3
7:30 EUR Germany Services PMI Sep P 54.5 54.9
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep P 52.2 52.3
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Sep P 54.1 54.4
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.60%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jul 0.80%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.1M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has remained under pressure today, bids at 1.1150-55 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.1135 and 1.1120, buying interest is expected at 1.1100, 1.1085 and 1.1065, fresh demand should emerge around 1.1050, 1.1030 and 1.1000. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.1195-05, 1.1225 and 1.1245, sell orders are reported at 1.1275 and 1.1300, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.1325-30 and 1.1350.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.3200

The greenback has continued to move higher after staging a rally from 1.3013, adding credence to our view that correction from 1.3354 has ended there and gain to indicated resistance at 1.3325-27 is seen, however, break there is needed to signal upmove has resumed for a retest of 1.3354 later. We are keeping our count that complex wave iv from 1.2835 ended at 1.1920 and wave v is underway

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stand aside

Although the single currency has rebounded after intra-day fall to 0.7197 and consolidation above this level is seen, break of 0.7285 is needed to suggest low has possibly been formed there, bring test of indicated resistance at 0.7361, only above this level would revive bullishness and encourage for gain to resistance at 0.7395 but it is necessary to see a breach there to signal the correction from 0.7423 (last month's high) has ended, bring further gain to this level.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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