Thursday, September 24, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-24-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro and Yen Rise against Dollar as Yellen Awaited

Dollar weakens against euro and yen today but remains firm against commodity currencies. Economic data released from US were mixed. Initial jobless claims rose 3k to 167k in the week ended September 19. The four week moving average dropped slightly to 271.75k. Continuing claims dropped 1k to 2.24m in the week ended September 12. Headline durable goods orders dropped -2.0% in August but ex-transport orders was flat. Fed chair Janet Yellen's speech later today will be closely watched for affirmation of a rate hike by the end f the year.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.75; (P) 120.14; (R1) 120.66; More...

USD/JPY weakens today but stays in range of 118.58/121.62 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 121.62 will extend the rebound from 116.13 and target 125.27/85 resistance zone. We'd cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 118.58 will turn focus back to 116.13 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Aug -1035M -875M -649M -726M
01:35 JPY PMI Manufacturing Sep P 50.9 51.3 51.7
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Jul 0.20% 0.10% 0.30% 0.50%
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Oct 9.6 9.8 9.9
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Sep 108.5 108 108.3 108.4
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Sep 114 114.9 114.8
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Sep 103.3 101.5 102.2
08:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Aug 46.7K 46.3K 46.0K 46.3K
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 19) 267K 268K 264K
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Aug -2.00% -2.20% 2.00%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Aug 0.00% 0.20% 0.60%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Aug 552K 515K 507K 522K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 106B 95B 73B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has surged since European morning, offers at 1.1225, 1.1245 and 1.1275 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.1300 and 1.1330 (stops above), mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1350, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.1390-00. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.1230-40 and 1.1210-15, more buy orders are expected at 1.1180, 1.1160-65 (stops below) and 1.1150, buyers are expected at 1.1135, 1.1120 and 1.1100-05 (stops below), buying interest should emerge around 1.1085, 1.1065 and 1.1050.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1230

The single currency has surged again after brief pullback, adding credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 1.1105 yesterday and mild upside bias remains for retracement of recent decline to bring further gain to 1.1280-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1460-1.1105), then towards 1.1324-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement and previous resistance)

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Stand aside

As the British pound has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.5286, suggesting the selloff from 1.5659 top is still in progress and downside risk remains for further weakness to 1.5195-00, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below previous chart support at 1.5164 and reckon 1.5130-35 (50% projection of 1.5529-1.5221 measuring from 1.5286) would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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