Monday, September 28, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-28-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mildly Higher as Range Trading Continues

Dollar is mildly higher in US session but stays in tight range against other major currencies. New York Fed president William Dudley echoed Fed chair Janet Yellen's view and said a rate hike later this year is likely. And he hailed that the economy is doing "pretty well" and if it continues on the current path, there's a strong case for for rate hike. Meanwhile, Fed governor Daniel Tarullo said that the economy got a "fair amount of momentum" even though they're still looking at the risks. Released from US, personal income rose 0.3% in August, below expectation of 0.4%. But spending rose 0.4% versus expectation of 0.3%. Headline PCE was unchanged at 0.3% yoy while core PCE rose to 1.3% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.92; (P) 120.58; (R1) 121.13; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY in range of 118.58/121.62. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 121.62 will extend the rebound from 116.13 and target 125.27/85 resistance zone. We'd cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 118.58 will turn focus back to 116.13 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
12:30 USD Personal Income Aug 0.30% 0.40% 0.40% 0.50%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Aug 0.40% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Aug 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Aug 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Aug 1.30% 1.20% 1.20%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Aug -1.4% 0.40% 0.50%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly today, bids are still noted at 1.1165, 1.1150 and 1.1135, buy orders are reported at 1.1120-25, 1.1100 and 1.1085, buying interest is tipped at 1.1065, 1.1050 and 1.1030, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.1000. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.1200, 1.1220-25 and 1.1245, sell orders are expected at 1.1275 and 1.1300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1275

Euro's rebound again after holding above Friday's low at 1.1116 has retained our view that further consolidation above last week's low at 1.1105 would be seen and recovery to 1.1235-40 cannot be ruled out, however, outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1270-75 and price should falter below resistance at 1.1296, bring another decline later. Below said support at 1.1116 would bring retest of last week's low at 1.1105, then towards previous support at 1.1087

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold long entered at 120.05

Dollar's retreat after Friday's brief rise to 121.24 (a shooting star was formed on the hourly chart) has retained our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 119.90 and bring another rise later, above the Kijun-Sen (now at 120.62) would bring rebound to 121.00, then towards resistance area at 121.24-35

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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