Thursday, September 17, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-17-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mixed as FOMC Awaited, SNB on Hold

Dollar remains mixed in early US session as markets are waiting for FOMC rate decision. Economic data released from US saw housing starts dropped to 1.13m annualized rate in August, below expectation of 1.16m. Building permits rose to 1.17m, above expectation of 1.15m. Current account deficit narrowed to USD -110b in Q2. Initial jobless claims dropped to 264k in the week ended September 12. Continuing claims dropped 26k to 2.24m in the week ended September 5. Released earlier today, UK retail sales rose 0.2% mom in August, inline with consensus. New Zealand GDP rose 0.4% qoq in Q2, below expectation of 0.6% qoq. Japan trade deficit narrowed to JPY -0.36T in August.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.20; (P) 120.46; (R1) 120.82; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 121.62 will extend the rebound from 116.13 and target 125.27/85 resistance zone. We'd cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 118.58 will turn focus back to 116.13 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.40% 0.60% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Aug -0.36T -0.35T -0.37T -0.38T
05:45 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
07:30 CHF SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range -1.25% -1.25% -1.25%
07:30 CHF SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range -0.25% -0.25% -0.25%
07:30 CHF SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate -0.75% -0.75% -0.75%
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD Current Account Balance Q2 -110B -$110.0B -$113.3B -118B
12:30 USD Housing Starts Aug 1.13M 1.16M 1.21M 1.16M
12:30 USD Building Permits Aug 1.17M 1.15M 1.13M
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 12) 264K 276K 275K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Sep 5.5 8.3
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 68B
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
18:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency edged higher, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.1355-60 and 1.1375, selling interest is tipped at 1.1390-00, 1.1420 and 1.1450. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1300, 1.1285 and 1.1260, buy orders are expected at 1.1245 (stops below), 1.1225 and 1.1200, buying interest should emerge around 1.1165, 1.1150 and 1.1130, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.1100.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5430

As cable has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally above 1.5476, adding credence to our bullish view that the rise from 1.5164 low is still in progress an further gain to 1.5565-70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5818-1.5164) would be seen, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.5600 and price should falter well below 1.5640-45 (100% projection of 1.5164-1.5476 measuring from 1.5330).

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 120.50

As the greenback has surged again after brief pullback to 120.34 earlier today, adding credence to our view that low has been formed at 119.40 (Tuesday's low with a hammer candlestick pattern on the hourly chart) and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to resistance at 120.97, however, break there is needed to signal the correction from 121.35 has ended at 119.40, bring further rise towards said resistance at 121.35

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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