Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-30-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mildly Firmer after ADP, Eurozone Back in Deflation

Dollar is mildly firm against Euro in early US session. ADP report showed private sector jobs grew 200k in September, above expectation f 185k. Prior month's figure was revised down from 190k to 186k. Euro on the other hand, was weighed down by a batch of weak data. Nonetheless, EUR/USD is staying tight range above 1.1104 and more consolidation would still be seen. The focus will turn to Fed chair Janet Yellen's speech later today and other economic data from US for the rest of the week. Also released in early US session, Canada GDP rose 0.3% mom in July versus expectation of 0.2% mom.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1201; (P) 1.1241 (R1) 1.1289; More....

EUR/USD dips mildly but stays in range above 1.1104. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. And risk stays on the downside. Below 1.1104 will resume the fall from 1.1713 and target 1.0807 support next. Note that whole corrective rise from 1.0461 has completed at 1.1713, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Break of 1.0807 would pave the way back to 1.0461. However, break of 1.1459 resistance will bring another rise through 1.1713 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% 20.30%
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 3 5 7
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50% 1.10% -0.80%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Aug 0.80% 1.30% 1.60% 1.80%
00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Sep -18.9 -29.1
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Aug -6.90% -1.90% 4.20% 7.90%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Aug 8.80% 7.70% 7.40%
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Aug 1.63 1.64
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Sep 100.4 101.2 100.7
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Sep 2K -5K -7k -6K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Sep 6.40% 6.40%
08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate Aug P 11.90% 12.00% 12.00%
08:30 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q2 -16.8B -22.3B -26.5b -24.0B
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Jul 0.80% 0.80% 0.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Aug 11.00% 10.90% 10.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Sep -0.10% 0.00% 0.10% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Sep A 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Sep 200K 185k 190k 186K
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.50%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Sep 53.1 54.4
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.9M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped today in European session, offers are lowered to 1.1225, 1.1245 and 1.1260-65, more sell orders are reported at 1.1280, 1.1295-00 and 1.1325-30, selling interest is tipped at 1.1350, 1.1380-85 and 1.1400. On the downside, bids at 1.1200 and 1.1180 were filled but buy orders are still seen at 1.1150, 1.1135 and 1.1120, buying interest should emerge around 1.1100, 1.1085 and 1.1065, fresh demand is located at 1.1050, 1.1030 and 1.1000.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold short entered at 1.1265

The single currency has retreated after holding below indicated resistance at 1.1265-68, retaining our bearishness for weakness towards support at 1.1147, however, break there is needed to add credence to our view that the rebound from 1.1116 has ended at 1.1282, then weakness to said support at 1.1116 would follow, below there would signal decline has resumed for retest of 1.1105

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Stand aside

As the greenback has rebounded again after finding buying interest at 119.53, suggesting near term upside risk remains for gain to 120.45-50, however, break above there is needed to signal the retreat from 121.24 has ended, bring a stronger rebound to 120.80-90, having said that, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon price would falter well below resistance at 121.24.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

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Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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