Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-16-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Lifted by Job Data, Dollar Mixed

Sterling strengthens strongly today as lifted by stronger than expected job data. Jobless claims rose 1.2k in August versus expectation of -5.1k fall, which was a disappointment. However, Unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% in July versus expectation of being unchanged at 5.6%. That's the lowest level since 2008. Also, wage grew 2.9% yoy in the three months through July, hitting the fastest pace since early 2009. Some economists noted that the solid job data showed recent softness in other economic data would be temporary only. And the overall recovery in UK economy remained healthy. And BoE is still on course to hike interest rate next year. Yesterday, Sterling was weighed down briefly as CPI slowed to 0.0% yoy in August. Also released from Europe, Eurozone CPI was revised lower to 0.1% yoy in August while CPI core slowed to 0.9% yoy. Swiss ZEW expectations rose sharply to 9.7 in September.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5295; (P) 1.5376; (R1) 1.5422; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral again on today's recovery. Above 1.5474 will extend the rebound from 1.5817 resistance. That will revive the case that rebound from 1.4565 is resuming. But in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4565 at 1.6187 to limit upside. Meanwhile, below 1.5329 minor support will likely send the pair through 1.5164 support to 61.8% retracement of 1.4565 to 1.5929 at 1.5086 and below.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q2 -1.22B -1.51B 0.66B 0.82B
00:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Aug -0.30% 0.00% 0.10%
05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report
08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Aug 1.2K -5.1K -4.9K -6.8K
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Aug 2.90% 2.50% 2.30% 2.60%
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jul 5.50% 5.60% 5.60%
09:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Sep 9.7 5.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Aug 0.00% -0.60% -0.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug F 0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Aug F 0.90% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jul 1.70% 1.00% 1.20%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Aug -0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Aug 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.80% 1.90% 1.80%
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jul -10.12B 8.51B 8.79B
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 61 61
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.7M 2.6M
20:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Jul $103.1B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: Cable extended intra-day rebound and offers at 1.5425-30 and 1.5450 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.5480, 1.5500-10 and 1.5530. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.5425-30, 1.5400 and 1.5385-90, buy orders are expected at 1.5350-60 and 1.5320-30, buying interest is located at 1.5300, 1.5285 and 1.5260, fresh demand should emerge around 1.5230 and 1.5200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5400

As cable has staged a strong rebound after the release of stronger-than-expected UK data, suggesting the correction from 1.5476 has ended at 1.5330 yesterday and retest of said resistance would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm the rise from 1.5164 has resumed and extend further gain to 1.5493-93

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 119.95

The greenback staged a strong rebound after finding good support at 119.40 yesterday (a hammer candlestick pattern was formed on the hourly chart), suggesting low has possibly been formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to resistance at 120.84, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal the correction from 121.35 has ended at 119.40, bring further gain to 121.00, then towards said resistance at 121.35

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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