Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 9-17-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Lower as Markets await FOMC and SNB

The dollar is mildly lower as markets await the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision today. As of yesterday, Fed fund futures pointed to 23% chance of a hike to 0.50% in this meeting and 39% chance in October. US stocks ended higher with DJIA extending this week's rebound by adding 140.10 pts, or 0.84% to close at 16739.95. S&P 500 also added 17.22 pts, or 0.87% to close at 1995.31, as it's heading back to 2000 handle. Asian equities followed and are trading generally higher. US treasury yield extended recent rise too with 2 year yield closing at a fresh four year high at 0.811%, comparing with Tuesday's close of 0.798%. 10 year yield also rose to close at 2.303%. In other markets, Gold recovered strongly this week and is back pressing 1120 handle. Crude oil also recovered and is back above 47 at the time of writing.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3134; (P) 1.3195; (R1) 1.3231; More...

USD/CAD dips mildly as consolidation from 1.3353 short term top extends. But intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.2951 support holds, further rally is still expected. Above 1.3353 will target next long term retracement level at 1.3469. However, break of 1.2951 will confirm near term reversal and bring deeper pull back.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.40% 0.60% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Aug -0.36T -0.35T -0.37T -0.38T
5:45 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
7:30 CHF SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range -1.25% -1.25%
7:30 CHF SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range -0.25% -0.25%
7:30 CHF SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate -0.75% -0.75%
8:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
8:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD Current Account Balance Q2 -$110.0B -$113.3B
12:30 USD Housing Starts Aug 1.16M 1.21M
12:30 USD Building Permits Aug 1.15M 1.13M
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 12) 276K 275K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Sep 5.5 8.3
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 68B
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
18:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: Cable extended intra-day rebound and offers at 1.5425-30 and 1.5450 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.5480, 1.5500-10 and 1.5530. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.5425-30, 1.5400 and 1.5385-90, buy orders are expected at 1.5350-60 and 1.5320-30, buying interest is located at 1.5300, 1.5285 and 1.5260, fresh demand should emerge around 1.5230 and 1.5200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7300

As the single currency has retreated after faltering below resistance at 0.7361 (last week's high), dampening our bullishness and 0.7260 needs to hold to retain prospect of another rebound, above said resistance would encourage for gain to resistance at 0.7395 but break there is needed to signal the correction from 0.7423 (last month's high) has ended, bring further gain to this level. Having said that, only break there would confirm upmove has resumed

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Stand aside

The greenback slipped today after the release of economic data from US and Canada, dampening our bullishness and weakness to 1.3150 cannot be ruled out, however, only break of support at 1.3117 would signal top has been formed at 1.3354 earlier, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.3050-60 but reckon psychological support at 1.3000 would hold from here, bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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