Monday, August 3, 2015

Action Insight Daily report 8-4-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Aussie Recovers as RBA Stands Pat and Stays Neutral

Australian dollar recovers as RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 2.00% as expected and maintained a neutral stance. The central bank noted that "further information on economic and financial conditions to be received over the period ahead will inform the Board's ongoing assessment of the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target." Regarding exchange rate, RBA noted that Aussie is "adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices." Also from Australia, retail sales rose 0.7% mom in June, much better than expectation of 0.4% mom. Trade deficits widened to AUD -2.93b in June but was smaller than expectation of AUD -3.06b.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7258; (P) 0.7286; (R1) 0.7313; More...

AUD/USD recovers today but is staying below 0.7448 resistance and outlook is unchanged. As long as 0.7448 resistance holds, current decline is expected for long term retracement level at 0.7182. Meanwhile, break of 0.7448 will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7597 support turned resistance first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jul 32.80% 32.20% 34.20%
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jun -2.93B -3.06B -2.75B -2.68B
1:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.70% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Jun -2.40% 0.90% 0.60% 0.70%
4:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices M/M Jul 0.40% -0.20%
8:30 GBP Construction PMI Jul 58.5 58.1
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jun -0.10% 0.00%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jun -2.30% -2.00%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Jun 1.70% -1.00%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro's retreat from 1.1114 has kept price under pressure, offers are still noted at 1.1000, 1.10200 and 1.1050, sell orders are reported at 1.1065, 1.1080-85 and 1.1100, selling interest is tipped at 1.1120, 1.1160 and 1.1185, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1200. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0950, 1.0925-30 and 1.0900, buy orders are expected at 1.0880, 1.0860 and 1.0820-25, buying interest should emerge around 1.0800, 1.0780 and 1.0750 barrier (stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stand aside

The single currency ran into resistance at 0.7098 on Friday and has retreated quickly, retaining our view that further choppy trading would be seen and weakness to 0.6985 support (last week's low) cannot be ruled out, however, only break of 0.6960-65 would signal the rebound from 0.6936 has ended at 0.7161, bring retest of this recent low later

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Target met and stand aside

Despite Friday's brief retreat to 1.2941, the greenback found renewed buying interest there and has surged again in line with our bullish expectation, our long position entered at 1.2900 met indicated target at 1.3100 with 200 points profit, although current anticipated resumption of recent upmove adds credence to our bullish count and this wave iii may extend further gain to 1.3200

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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