Saturday, August 1, 2015

Action Insight Weekly Report 8-1-15

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Dollar Mixed as Focus Turns to Employment Data Again

Dollar was mixed last week as traders sharply pushed back expectations of a September rate hike by Fed. By the end of the week, the markets are pricing in only 28% chance of September hike, comparing to around 50% at the start of the week. A major trigger in the change in expectations was the weak wage rise in Q2. The employment cost index rose a mere 0.2% in Q2, the lowest on record since 1982. Meanwhile, earlier in the week, FOMC sounded non-committal in its statement and noted that "some further improvement in the labor market" is needed before hiking. There were increasing expectations that Fed could indeed hike in December and markets are pricing in near 70% chance at or before December meeting. While the greenback ended July as the strongest major currency, it will need a strong non-farm payroll report to be released this week, in particular with solid wage growth, to extend its strength into August.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY edge higher last week with weak momentum. Overall outlook is unchanged. We're viewing price actions from 195.86 as a sideway consolidation pattern. Thus, while another rise cannot be ruled out, strong resistance should be seen around 195.86 to limit upside and bring reversal. Below 190.99 support will turn bias back to the downside for 184.95 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88.

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The Week in Review and Outlook

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