Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 9-10-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Kiwi Tumbles after RBNZ Cut, BoE in Focus

New Zealand dollar tumbles after RBNZ cut the official cash rate by -25bps to 2.75% as widely expected. More importantly, the central bank maintained a dovish stance and signalled in the statement that "some further easing in the OCR seems likely." It said that globally, outlook was "revised down" due to weaker activity in developing economies particularly in China and East Asia. Domestic economy is still adjusting to fall in commodity prices and is expected to grow at an annual pace of 2%. Headline inflation is expected to return well within the target range by early 2016. Regarding exchange rate, RBNZ noted that " further depreciation is appropriate, given the sharpness of the decline in New Zealand’s export commodity prices." And, "considerable uncertainty exists around the timing and magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through."

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6990; (P) 0.7030; (R1) 0.7055; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as the consolidation from 0.6905 temporary low continues. Near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7233 resistance holds and recent down trend is expected to resume later. Below 0.6905 will target 100% projection of 0.9504 to 0.7625 from 0.8161 at 0.6282 next. Nonetheless, break of 0.7233 will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to next key resistance at 0.7625.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 3.00%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Aug 53% 46% 44%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jul -3.60% 3.40% -7.90%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Aug -3.60% -3.20% -3.00% -3.10%
1:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Sep 3.20% 3.70%
1:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Aug 2.00% 1.90% 1.60%
1:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Aug -5.90% -5.50% -5.40%
1:30 AUD Employment Change Aug 17.4K 5.2K 38.5K 39.2K
1:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Aug 6.20% 6.20% 6.30%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target Sep 375B 375B
11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 1--0--8 1--0--8
11:00 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9
12:30 CAD NHPI M/M Jul 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Aug -1.70% -0.90%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 5) 279K 282K
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.30% 0.90%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 94B
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 4.7M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency ran into heavy offers just above 1.1200 and has slipped, bids at 1.1170-75 and 1.1140 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.1120 and 1.1100, buying interest should emerge around 1.1070 and 1.1050. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.1160-70 and 1.1200-10, sell orders are reported at 1.1220-30 (stops above), 1.1270 and 1.1300, selling interest is tipped at 1.1320 and 1.1350.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.3210

The greenback has slipped again after intra-day brief bounce to 1.3267, suggesting caution on our bullishness and 1.3150-55 needs to hold to retain prospect of another rebound, above said intra-day resistance at 1.3267 would bring test of resistance at 1.3325-27 but break there is needed to signal correction from 1.3354 has ended, bring retest of this recent high.

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stand aside

The single currency has remained under pressure and near term downside risk remains for another corrective decline from 0.7423 top to bring retracement of recent upmove to 0.7220-25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7026-0.7423), however, reckon 0.7200 would limit downside and 0.7170-78 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should hold, bring another rise later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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