Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 9-3-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Aussie Soft on Weak Data, ECB Watched

Australian dollar stays soft in Asian session and continues to struggle around 0.7 against the greenback. Trade deficit narrowed to AUD -2.46b in July, smaller than expectation of AUD -3.10b. Nonetheless, that's still the country's 16th consecutive monthly balance of deficit. Also, while exports rose 2% mom, that's mainly thanks to 62% mom rise in non-monetary gold shipments, which should be temporary. On the other hand, imports was steady and rose by less than 0.1% mom. Also from Australia, retail sales dropped -0.1% mom in July, much worse than expectation of 0.4% mom.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6996; (P) 0.7022; (R1) 0.7063; More...

Further fall is still expected in AUD/USD with 0.7152 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.7625 from 0.8161 at 0.7000 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.6282. On the upside, break of 0.7152 resistance is needed to be first signal of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jul -2.46B -3.10B -2.93B -3.05B
1:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jul -0.10% 0.40% 0.70% 0.60%
7:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Aug 53 52
7:50 EUR France Services PMI Aug F 51.8 51.8
7:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Aug F 53.6 53.6
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Aug F 54.3 54.3
8:30 GBP Services PMI Aug 57.6 57.4
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.60% -0.60%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Aug 125.40%
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jul -1.40B -0.48B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 29) 273K 271K
12:30 USD Trade Balance Jul -$44.50B -$43.84B
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Aug 58.3 60.3
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 69
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: Cable recovered after falling 1.5264, bids are still noted at 1.5265, 1.5250 and 1.5220, buying interest is tipped at 1.5190-00 and further out at 1.5160-70. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.5320 and 1.5350, sell orders are expected at 1.5380 and 1.5400, selling interest should emerge around 1.5420 and 1.5450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7300

The single currency has staged a strong rebound after finding good support at 0.7246 late last week, suggesting the correction from 0.7423 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to last week's high at 0.7423, however, break there is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 0.7450, then towards 0.7475-80, otherwise, further consolidation is in store.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Stand aside

Although the greenback has rebounded after holding above yesterday's low at 1.3117 and consolidation with initial upside bias is seen for gain to 1.3300, break of indicated resistance at 1.3327 (Monday's high) is needed to signal correction from last week's high at 1.3354 has ended, bring retest of this level. Once this resistance is penetrated, this would signal recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to 1.3390-00, however, this minor wave v of iii should be limited to 1.3440-50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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