Thursday, September 10, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-10-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Higher after BoE, Aussie Maintains Gains

Sterling is so far one of the largest gainer today on positive BoE statement. Nonetheless, it's being overshadowed by Aussie which is lifted by employment data. Kiwi has the opposite fortune and remains the weakest one after dovish RBNZ rate cut. Markets are mixed elsewhere and have muted reaction to the batch of economic data released in early US session. From US, initial jobless claims dropped to 275k in the week ended September 5, below expectation of 279k. Continuing claims rose 1k to 2.26m in the week ended August 29. Import price index dropped -1.8% mom in August. Canada new housing price index rose 0.1% mom in July.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5343; (P) 1.5373; (R1) 1.5398; More...

The breach of 1.5436 minor resistance with lack of follow through buying is mixing up the near term outlook. Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 1.5288 will turn bias back to 1.5164. Break will extend the fall from 1.5929 to 61.8% retracement of 1.4565 to 1.5929 at 1.5086 an below. However, firm break of 1.5436 will indicate that fall from 1.5929 was a correction and has completed. In such case, strong rise would be seen back to 1.5817/5929 resistance zone.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 3.00%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Aug 53% 46% 44%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jul -3.60% 3.40% -7.90%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Aug -3.60% -3.20% -3.00% -3.10%
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Sep 3.20% 3.70%
01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Aug 2.00% 1.90% 1.60%
01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Aug -5.90% -5.50% -5.40%
01:30 AUD Employment Change Aug 17.4K 5.2K 38.5K 39.2K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Aug 6.20% 6.20% 6.30%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target Sep 375B 375B 375B
11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 1--0--8 1--0--8 1--0--8
11:00 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
12:30 CAD NHPI M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Aug -1.80% -1.70% -0.90%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 5) 275K 279K 282K 281K
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.30% 0.90%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 94B
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 4.7M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found support at 1.1172 and has rebounded again, bids are still noted at 1.1170-75, 1.1160 and 1.1145-50, buy orders are reported at 1.1120, 1.1100 and 1.1085, buying interest is tipped at 1.1070 and 1.1050. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.1225, 1.1245-50 and 1.1270-75, sell orders are expected at 1.1300, 1.1320 and 1.1335, selling interest should emerge around 1.1350 and 1.1390-00.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 120.05

As the greenback has retreated after faltering below intra-day resistance at 121.35, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 120.45) cannot be ruled out, however, intra-day low at 119.98 should contain downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend the rebound from 118.59 to 121.50, then test of previous resistance at 121.75

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9705

Dollar's near term sideways trading is likely to continue and as long as 0.9800- holds, risk of another corrective fall to 0.9716 (yesterday's low) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon support at 0.9700 would limit downside and bring another rebound, above 0.9800-05 would bring retest of 0.9824, break there would extend recent rise from 0.9259 to 0.9835 (61.8% projection of 0.9259-0.9690 measuring from 0.9569)

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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