Thursday, September 3, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-3-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Falls on Dovish ECB Draghi, Outlook Downgrade

Euro tumbles after ECB downgraded economic outlook and hinted that its ready to expand the quantitative easing program given the downside risks. ECB kept interest rate unchanged at 0.05% as widely expected. In the post meeting press conference, ECB president Mario Draghi noted that the economic recovery in the region was "somewhat weaker". And the EUR 60b per month asset purchase program could be adjusted on its size, composition and duration.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1189; (P) 1.1254 (R1) 1.1292; More....

EUR/USD's decline resumes today and reaches as low as 1.1106 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.0807 support. As noted before, the corrective rise from 1.0461 could have completed at 1.1713 already. Break of 1.0807 support will confirm this case and would likely extend the larger down trend. Meanwhile, above 1.1332 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.1713 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jul -2.46B -3.10B -2.93B -3.05B
01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jul -0.10% 0.40% 0.70% 0.60%
07:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Aug 54.6 53.1 52
07:50 EUR France Services PMI Aug F 50.6 51.8 51.8
07:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Aug F 54.9 53.6 53.6
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Aug F 54.4 54.3 54.3
08:30 GBP Services PMI Aug 55.6 57.6 57.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.40% 0.60% -0.60%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Aug 2.90% 125.40%
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jul -0.59B -1.40B -0.48B -0.81B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 29) 282K 273K 271K 270K
12:30 USD Trade Balance Jul -41.86B -$44.50B -$43.84B -45.1B
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Aug 59 58.3 60.3
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 94B 88B 69B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped again in NY morning in part due to upbeat US data, bids at 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1160 and 1.1120-30 were filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.1100 barrier is in focus, some buy orders are scattered around 1.1050-60 and 1.1020-25, buying interest is tipped at 1.0990-00 (stops below 1.0980). On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.1150-55 and 1.1190-00, sell orders are expected at 1.1220 and 1.1240-50 (stops above), selling interest should emerge around 1.1280 and 1.1300 with stops building up above 1.1335-40.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell at 120.15

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 120.70 earlier today, suggesting the rebound from 119.23 has possibly ended and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for another test of this level, however, break there is needed to signal the fall from 121.75 is still in progress for a stronger retracement of the rise from 116.16, then weakness to 118.92-96 (previous support and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 116.16-121.75) would follow

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Stand aside

Although the British pound has fallen again after brief recovery and near term downside bias remains for recent decline from 1.5930 top to extend weakness to 1.5220-25, loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall below 1.5195-00 (61.8% projection of 1.5720-1.5335 measuring from 1.5437) and reckon 1.5170 would limit downside, price should stay above 1.5150, risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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