Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 10-21-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Soft as Trade Deficit Larger Unchanged

The Japanese yen stays mildly soft in Asian session after data showed trade deficit came in at JPY -0.36T in September, largely unchanged from prior month's JPY -0.37T. But that was larger than expectation of JPY -0.07T. Exports dropped for the third consecutive months by -1.7% mom while imports dropped for the second month by -0.8% mom. Yen pulled back a lot since August as risk sentiments stabilized. There have been speculations of further stimulus by BoJ as core inflation turned negative since July. But recent comments from BoJ officials suggested that they will look past the impact of decline in oil price. And, barring further financial shock from China or devaluation of Yuan, BoJ will likely hold their hands in near term.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2925; (P) 1.2985; (R1) 1.3037; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is still expected as long as 1.3079 resistance holds. As noted before, the medium term trend is possibly reversing. Break of 1.2834 will affirm this bearish case and target next key support level at 1.1919. Nonetheless above 1.3079 will turn focus back to 1.3456 high instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Aug -0.40% 0.30%
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Sep 0.10% -0.30%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Sep -0.36T -0.07T -0.36T -0.37T
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Aug -0.30% 0.20%
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Sep 9.1B 11.3B
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 7.6M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated after meeting resistance at 1.1387, offers at 1.1375-80 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.1400 and 1.1425-30, selling interest is tipped at 1.1455-60, 1.1485 and 1.1500. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1325-30, 1.1300 and 1.1285, buy orders are expected at 1.1265 and 1.1250, buying interest should emerge around 1.1230 and 1.1200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7260 or sell at 0.7395

Euro's sharp retreat after rising to 0.7493 last week suggests top has possibly been formed there (as wave v peak), hence consolidation with mild downside bias remains for this fall to bring retracement of recent upmove to 0.7260-70, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there, bring rebound later, above 0.7370-75 would bring recovery to 0.7395-00

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.2900

Although the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.3048 and consolidation would be seen, if our view that a temporary low formed at 1.2832 is correct, downside should be limited to 1.2900 and bring another rebound, above resistance at 1.3081 would signal at least first leg of decline from 1.3457 top has ended, bring a stronger rebound to 1.3100 and later towards 1.3130-35

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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