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Daily Report: Aussie Lower on CPI Miss, FOMC in FocusAustralian dollar drops sharply in Asian session after release of consumer inflation data. Headline CPI rose 0.5% qoq, 1.5% yoy in Q3, below expectation of 0.7% qoq, 1.8% yoy. The year-over-year rate was unchanged from Q2 and stayed well below RBA's target of 2-3%. The RBA trimmed mean CPI rose 0.3% qoq, 2.1% yoy, below expectation of 0.5% qoq, 2.4% yoy. RBA weighted median CPI rose 0.3% qoq, 2.2% yoy versus expectation of 0.5% qoq, 2.5% yoy. There has been some speculations that RBA could cut benchmark interest rate next week to counter recent rate increase by the largest four retail banks in the country. And some analysts noted that today's benign inflation reading would give the central bank some more food or thoughts for rate cut. And some noted that even if RBA is on hold in November, there is still a high chance for the central bank to lower interest rate from the current 2.00% level to 1.50% nest year. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7161; (P) 0.7209; (R1) 0.7240; More... The break of 0.7164 minor support suggests that the corrective rise from 0.6905 has finally completed at 0.7381. Intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 0.6905/6937 support zone. Decisive break there will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.8161 to 0.6905 from 0.7381 at 0.6605 next. In case of another recovery, we'd continue to expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to limit upside. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound has retreated again from 1.5357, indicated offers are still noted at 1.5355-60, 1.5380-85 and 1.5400, sell orders are reported at 1.5420-25, 1.5445-50 and 1.5480, selling interest is tipped at 1.5500-10 (stops above), 1.5525-30 and 1.5550. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.5300-10 and 1.5285, buy orders are expected at 1.5265, 1.5250 and 1.5220, buying interest should emerge around 1.5200, 1.5175-80 and 1.5150. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7260As the single currency has recovered after falling to 0.7168, consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to 0.7240-45 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7359-0.7168) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.7260-65 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend recent selloff to 0.7145-50 Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Target met and stand asideThe greenback has risen again after brief pullback, adding credence to our bullish view and our long position entered at 1.3055 met our indicated upside target at 1.3250, this anticipated rise reinforces our view that the fall from 1.3457 top has ended at 1.2832 and mild upside bias remains for the rebound from there to extend further gain to 1.3290-00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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