Thursday, October 29, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-29-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: US GDP Missed, But Job Data Solid, Dollar Firm

Dollar remains firm in early US session despite GDP miss and the greenback stays supported by yesterday's more hawkish than expected FOMC statement. Q3 GDP grew 1.5% annualized, slightly below expectation of 1.6%. GDP price index rose 1.2%, below expectation 1.5%. Meanwhile initial jobless claims 1k to 260k in the weekended October 24. The 4 week moving average dropped 4k to 259.25k, lowest since December 1973. Continuing claims dropped 37k to 2.14m in the week ended October 17, lowest since November 2000. Canadian IPPI dropped -0.3 mom in September while RMPI rose 3.0% mom.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0848; (P) 1.0971 (R1) 1.1047; More.....

EUR/USD's fall is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Corrective rise rise from 1.0461 has already completed at 1.1713, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Deeper decline should be seen to 1.0807 support first. Break there will bring retest of 1.0461 low. On the upside, above 1.1095 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another decline.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20%
00:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3 1.40% 1.00% 1.40%
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Oct -5K -4K 2k
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Sep 69K 73K 71k
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Oct 105.9 105.2 105.6
10:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Oct 0.44 0.32 0.34 0.36
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct -2 -2.8 -2.2 -2.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Oct 11.9 12 12.4
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (OCT F) -7.7 -7.7 -7.7
11:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Oct 19 35 49
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 24) 260K 264K 259K
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q3 A 1.50% 1.60% 3.90%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q3 A 1.20% 1.50% 2.10%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Sep -0.30% -0.10% -0.30%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Sep 3.00% 1.20% -6.60% -6.80%
13:00 EUR German CPI M/M Oct P 0.00% -0.10% -0.20%
13:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Oct P 0.30% 0.20% 0.00%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Sep 0.20% -1.40%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 81B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered but offers are still noted at 1.0980, 1.1000 and 1.1020-25, selling interest is tipped at 1.1050, 1.1075-80 and 1.1100. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0915-20, 1.0900 and 1.0885, buy orders are expected at 1.0850, 1.0830 and 1.0800, buying interest should emerge around 1.0785, 1.0765 and 1.0750.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9840

As the greenback retreated after yesterday's rally to 0.9958, suggesting  consolidation below this level would be seen and below the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9890 would bring pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 0.9849), however, support at 0.9821 (yesterday's low) should remain intact, bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend recent upmove to 0.9970-75, then towards psychological resistance at 1.0000

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5310

As the British pound met renewed selling interest at 1.5348 and has fallen again on dollar's broad-based rebound, suggesting the decline from 1.5510 top is still in progress and weakness towards indicated key support at 1.5201 would be seen, however, a break below there is needed to retain bearishness and signal early correction from 1.5107 low has indeed ended

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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