Thursday, October 22, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-22-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Tumbles as ECB Draghi Hints on More Stimulus

Euro drops sharply as ECB president Mario Draghi said in the post meeting conference that the central bank will re-examine the degree of stimulus in December meeting. Also, he emphasized that ECB is open to "a whole menu of monetary policy instruments". That is seen by the markets as a hint of extension or expansion of the quantitative easing program. Regarding the economy, Draghi noted that "concerns over growth prospects in emerging markets and possible repercussions for the economy from developments in commodity markets signal downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation."

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1322; (P) 1.1349 (R1) 1.1366; More.....

EUR/USD's sharp fall today suggests that price actions from 1.1086 are merely a consolidation and could have completed at 1.1495 already. Fall from 1.1713 might be resuming. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for 1.1104 support. Break will confirm this case. More importantly, this week indicate that corrective rebound from 1.0461 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low. Above, 1.1305 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. In case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810 to finally bring near term reversal.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q3 0 4
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Sep 1.90% 0.40% 0.20% -0.40%
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.50% 0.10% 0.50% 0.60%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Aug 0.00% 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 17) 259K 266K 255k 256K
13:00 USD House Price Index M/M Aug 0.30% 0.50% 0.60%
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct A -7.7 -7.5 -7.1
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Sep 5.55M 5.35m 5.31m
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Sep -0.20% 0.00% 0.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 100B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency tumbled today after ECB, bids at 1.1250, 1.1230, 1.1200, 1.1185 and 1.1165 were filled, however, some buy orders are still noted at 1.1150 and 1.1130, fresh demand is located at 1.1100 and 1.1070-75. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.1220, 1.1250 and 1.1300, sell orders are expected at 1.1325-30 and 1.1350, selling interest should emerge around 1.1385-90 (stops above) and 1.1415-20, selling interest should emerge around 1.1450 and further out at 1.1490-00.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5470

Although cable resumed recent rise to a marginal high of 1.5510, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent euro-led retreat signal top has been formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for at least a correction of recent rise, hence weakness to 1.5370 and then 1.5350-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5201-1.5510) is likely

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1250

Current selloff on euro's broad-based weakness signals early erratic rise from 1.1087 has ended at 1.1495 and bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.1150-53 (previous support and 1.236 times projection of 1.1495-1.1306 measuring from 1.1387), then test of previous support at 1.1135

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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