Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-13-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Tumbles as CPI Turned Negative

Sterling tumbles sharply today on weak consumer inflation data as well as comments from a BoE official. Headline CPI dropped back to negative territory at -0.1% yoy in September. That's much worse than expectation of 0.2% yoy. Core CPI was unchanged at 1.0% yoy versus expectation of 1.1% yoy. RPI dropped to 1.1% yoy. PPI input rose slightly to -13.3% yoy in September. PPI output rose to -1.8% yoy. PPI Output core rose to 0.2% yoy. Also from UK, BRC sales monitor rose 2.6% yoy in September.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5309; (P) 1.5341; (R1) 1.5376; More...

The sharp fall in GBP/USD today suggests that recovery from 1.5106 has completed at 1.5387 after touching 55 days EMA. Focus is back on 1.5106 support. Break will extend the fall from 1.5929. And sustained break of 61.8% of 1.4565 to 1.5929 at 1.5086 will pave the way to retest 1.4565 low. In case of another rise, risk will still stay on the downside as long as 1.5658 resistance holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Sales Monitor Y/Y Sep 2.60% -1.00%
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Sep 5 1
3:10 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Sep 60.3B 46.9B 60.2B
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Sep 40.6 41.6 41.7
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Sep P -1.91% -16.50%
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M Sep F -0.20% -0.20% -0.20%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Sep F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Sep -0.10% -0.10% -0.70%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Sep -6.80% -6.80%
8:30 GBP CPI M/M Sep -0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
8:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Sep -0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
8:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Sep 1.00% 1.10% 1.00%
8:30 GBP RPI M/M Sep -0.10% 0.10% 0.50%
8:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Sep 1.00% 1.00% 1.10%
8:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Sep 0.60% 0.10% -2.40% -3.00%
8:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Sep -13.30% -13.00% -13.80%
8:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Sep -0.10% 0.10% -0.40% -0.50%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Sep -1.80% -1.80% -1.80% -1.90%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Sep 0.10% -0.10% 0.00%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Sep 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
9:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Oct 1.9 6.8 12.1
9:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Oct 55.2 66.5 67.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Oct 30.1 30.1 33.3
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency met indicated offers at 1.1400 and slipped again, sell orders are still noted at 1.1400, 1.1425-30 and 1.1450, selling interest is tipped at 1.1475, 1.1500 and 1.1520-30, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.1550. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1350-55, 1.1330 and 1.1300, buy orders are expected at 1.1285, 1.1270 and 1.1250, buying interest should emerge around 1.1230 and 1.1200.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5300

Although the British pound rose marginally to 1.5388, lack of follow through buying and current sharp retreat below support at 1.5261 signal an intra-day top has been formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for at least a stronger correction of the rise from 1.5107, hence weakness to 1.5200 would be seen, however, downside should be limited to 1.5165-70

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1455

The single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.1344 and has risen again, suggesting recent erratic rise from 1.1105 low is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.1420-25 (50% projection of 1.1240-1.1397 measuring from 1.1344), however, loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside to previous resistance at 1.1460 and bring retreat later, below said support at 1.1344 would signal top is formed, bring weakness to 1.1319-27

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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