Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-27-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar and Sterling Steady after Disappointing Data

Dollar is generally stuck in range after disappointing durable goods orders report, except that mild strength is seen against Swiss Franc and Canadian dollar. Headline durable goods orders dropped -1.2% in September versus expectation of -1.3%. Ex-transport orders dropped -0.4% versus expectation of 0.0%. Meanwhile, S&P Case-Shiller 20 cities composite index rose 5.1% yoy in August as expected. Notable weakness is seen in Canadian dollar as dragged down by crude oil. WTI dips through 43 today and reaches as low as 42.74 at the time of writing.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5311; (P) 1.5345; (R1) 1.5386; More...

GBP/USD lost some downside momentum for intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. Recovery from 1.5106 could have completed at 1.5508 already. Break of 1.5106 will extend the choppy decline from 1.5929 and would target a test on 1.4565 low. In any case, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.5668 resistance holds. However, break of 1.5658 resistance will invalidate this view and target 1.5929 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Sep -1222M -822M -1035M -1079M
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Sep 0.60% 0.70% 0.70% 0.80%
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Sep 1.65 1.63
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Sep 4.90% 5.00% 4.80% 4.90%
09:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q3 A 0.50% 0.60% 0.70%
09:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Aug 0.90% 1.00% 0.80%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Sep -1.20% -1.30% -2.00% -2.30%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Sep -0.40% 0.00% 0.00% -0.20%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Aug 5.10% 5.10% 5.00% 4.90%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Oct 97.6 102.8 103 102.6
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound has retreated again from 1.5357, indicated offers are still noted at 1.5355-60, 1.5380-85 and 1.5400, sell orders are reported at 1.5420-25, 1.5445-50 and 1.5480, selling interest is tipped at 1.5500-10 (stops above), 1.5525-30 and 1.5550. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.5300-10 and 1.5285, buy orders are expected at 1.5265, 1.5250 and 1.5220, buying interest should emerge around 1.5200, 1.5175-80 and 1.5150.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9715

As the greenback has risen again after brief pullback and a firm break above indicated resistance at 0.9844 would add credence to our view that early upmove has resumed, bring headway towards 0.9890-00 which is likely to hold from here due to loss of near term upward momentum.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5400

Although the British pound rebounded after finding support at 1.5305 yesterday and consolidation above this level would be seen, reckon upside would be limited to 1.5400 and if our view that top has been formed at 1.5510 is correct, price should falter below resistance at 1.5419, bring another decline, below 1.5320-25 would extend the fall from 1.5510 for at least a strong retracement of recent upmove to 1.5300

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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