Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-28-15

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Retreats Mildly ahead of FOMC

Dollar retreats mildly today as markets are awaiting FOMC rate decision. Fed is expected to keep policies unchanged and since there is no post meeting press conference, focus will be solely on the accompanying statement. And the main question is whether Fed will give any hints on the chance of a December rate hike. As of yesterday, fed fund futures are only pricing in 35% of a hike in December, not much different from a month ago. Meanwhile, markets are just pricing in only 57% chance of a hike by March. Some analysts noted that it's unlikely for Fed to give any signal, though. And more time is needed for policy makers to determine if the recent slow down in hiring is temporary. Meanwhile, assessment for inflation would likely remain unchanged. Based on recent dovish rhetoric from ECB, weakness in oil price and firmness in US stocks, the greenback will likely stay supported after the FOMC statement.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.04; (P) 120.56; (R1) 120.97; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. The failure to take out 121.62 resistance suggests that recent sideway consolidation would continue. On the upside, break of 121.62 will extend the rebound from 116.13 towards 125.27/85 resistance zone. Below 118.05 will target 116.13 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Sep -0.20% 0.60% 0.80%
00:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q3 0.50% 0.70% 0.70%
00:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q3 1.50% 1.80% 1.50%
00:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q3 0.30% 0.50% 0.60%
00:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q3 2.10% 2.40% 2.20%
00:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q3 0.30% 0.50% 0.50%
00:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q3 2.20% 2.50% 2.40%
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Nov 9.4 9.4 9.6
12:30 USD Trade Balance Sep -58.6B -64.9B -67.2B
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 8.0M
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered today, bids are still noted at 1.1025-30, 1.1000 and 1.0985, buy orders are reported at 1.0960, 1.0930 and 1.0900, buying interest is tipped at 1.0885, 1.0850 and 1.0830, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.0800. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.1100 and 1.1125, sell orders are expected at 1.1150, 1.1175-80 and 1.1200, selling interest should emerge around 1.1220, 1.1250 and 1.1275, stops are building up above offers at 1.1300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5380

The British pound resumed the decline from 1.5510 top yesterday after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.5382, adding credence to our bearish view that the aforesaid fall is still in progress, hence bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.5280 (50% projection of 1.5510-1.5305 measuring from 1.5382), then 1.5260-65

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold long entered at 120.25

Although the greenback fell to 120.16 yesterday and near term downside risk remains for the decline from 121.51 top to extend marginal weakness, reckon previous resistance at 120.09 would limit downside and bring rebound later, above 120.75 would suggest low is formed, bring test of 121.10-15

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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