Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-14-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Under Pressure after Retail Sales and PPI

Dollar is generally lower today and weakness is most clearly seen against Euro and Swiss Franc. The greenback pared back some gains against commodity currencies and reversed against sterling. Some additional selling pressure is seen after release of sales and inflation data. Headline retail sales rose 0.1% in September versus expectation of 0.2%. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.3% versus expectation of -0.1%. PPI dropped more than expected by -0.5% mom, -1.1% yoy, comparing to consensus of -0.3% mom, -0.9% yoy. Core PPI dropped -0.3% mom, rose 0.8% yoy, comparing to expectation of 0.1% mom, 1.2% yoy. Yesterday Governor Daniel Tarullo said that he "wouldn't expect it would be appropriate to raise rates." He also warned that "a premature rise might be harder to deal with than waiting a little bit longer."

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1344; (P) 1.1377 (R1) 1.1411; More.....

The rebound in EUR/USD is still in progress and focus is now on 1.1459 resistance. We'd still prefer to see resumption of fall from 1.1713 as long as 1.1459 resistance holds. Break of 1.0807 would pave the way back to 1.0461. However, break of 1.1459 resistance will bring another rise through 1.1713 resistance. Focus would then be back to 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Oct 4.20% -5.60%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Sep -3.90% -3.90% -3.60%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Sep 3.80% 4.30% 4.20%
01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Sep 1.60% 1.80% 2.00%
01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Sep -5.90% -5.90% -5.90%
08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Sep 4.6K 1.0k 1.2k
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Sep 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
08:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Aug 3.00% 3.10% 2.90%
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Aug 5.40% 5.50% 5.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Aug -0.50% -0.50% 0.60% 0.80%
09:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Oct 18.3 9.7
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Sep 0.10% 0.20% 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Sep -0.30% -0.10% 0.10% -0.10%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Sep -0.50% -0.30% 0.00%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Sep -1.10% -0.90% -0.80%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Sep -0.30% 0.10% 0.30%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Sep 0.80% 1.20% 0.90%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Aug 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
18:00 USD Fed Beige Book
Forex Trade Ideas

Remark: Due to holidays, update will resume on Monday 19 Oct 2015.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

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Fundamental Highlights

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